***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2015.-05.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 17.7 17.6 14.2 0.4 56.7 55.8 15.5 17.3 18.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 17.6 17.5 14.3 0.5 57.3 56.8 16.1 17.4 18.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 17.5 18.1 14.3 0.4 57.6 55.5 16.0 17.0 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 10.1 10.3 12.6 0.4 56.9 54.8 7.0 9.7 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 17.8 17.9 12.7 0.2 55.0 53.3 16.1 17.2 18.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 15.6 14.9 10.6 -0.1 50.3 49.0 14.2 14.9 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 17.3 17.4 14.2 0.5 56.7 56.9 15.8 17.0 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.0 10.8 -0.2 45.0 48.5 3.2 4.5 6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 17.3 17.4 13.1 0.2 54.6 52.9 15.8 16.6 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 17.6 17.0 11.6 -0.1 48.3 49.8 15.8 17.1 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 17.3 16.8 12.2 0.1 50.5 51.4 15.7 16.7 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 16.9 15.8 11.7 -0.1 45.4 49.3 14.6 16.4 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 17.4 16.6 11.2 -0.1 45.7 48.2 15.6 16.8 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.5 17.7 13.0 0.3 55.0 53.9 16.3 17.1 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 17.0 16.9 13.0 0.5 57.9 56.7 14.8 16.6 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 17.9 17.3 11.9 0.1 49.2 50.4 16.0 17.3 18.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.6 16.6 14.1 0.6 56.8 57.1 15.2 16.4 17.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 17.3 16.3 10.8 -0.3 48.4 48.8 15.6 16.8 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.4 14.4 0.5 58.6 56.6 15.6 17.2 17.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 9.2 11.0 8.1 -0.7 44.4 45.1 10.3 11.1 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 17.5 17.6 13.8 0.3 55.9 54.2 15.9 17.0 18.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 17.5 17.6 14.2 0.6 58.4 56.7 15.8 17.2 17.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 18.0 18.0 14.3 0.4 59.7 56.0 16.0 17.6 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 17.8 17.7 12.8 0.1 54.9 52.6 15.9 17.4 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 17.6 17.7 12.9 0.4 57.5 55.8 15.2 17.2 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 16.6 15.7 10.8 -0.3 44.2 46.9 15.0 16.0 17.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.6 13.6 0.4 56.5 56.1 15.8 17.1 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 17.0 16.7 12.8 0.3 55.5 54.3 14.7 16.5 18.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 8.9 11.0 9.7 -0.3 47.8 48.6 10.1 11.1 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 17.4 17.6 14.3 0.4 57.7 56.6 15.8 17.2 17.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------