***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2015.-29.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 16.1 13.7 12.5 -0.3 43.3 45.2 12.5 15.6 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 15.5 14.8 12.7 -0.1 44.0 47.2 13.1 15.1 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.0 12.6 -0.4 44.4 45.5 13.8 15.5 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.3 5.1 9.2 -1.3 33.5 36.8 5.0 6.7 9.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 16.1 13.7 10.5 -1.0 36.5 39.7 13.6 15.6 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 14.8 13.9 9.0 -0.2 44.9 47.4 12.2 14.4 16.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 15.1 14.4 12.6 0.0 46.7 48.6 13.1 14.6 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 3.4 2.4 8.6 -1.0 42.8 40.4 1.4 2.9 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 16.0 14.1 11.7 -0.7 41.4 42.9 13.3 15.5 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 16.0 14.4 10.0 -0.8 43.1 42.2 13.0 15.7 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 15.8 13.9 10.5 -0.8 42.1 41.9 12.9 15.3 17.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 14.7 13.1 9.4 -1.0 42.8 40.4 12.0 14.1 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 90 10 100 15.7 13.9 10.0 -0.4 43.6 44.8 13.0 15.3 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 16.5 15.3 11.7 -0.6 42.9 43.2 13.5 16.1 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 13.5 13.5 10.8 -1.1 36.5 37.7 13.5 14.5 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 15.9 14.6 10.4 -0.5 44.4 44.4 13.5 15.4 18.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 14.1 13.5 12.4 -0.1 44.5 47.4 12.3 13.8 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 15.8 13.2 9.1 -0.9 40.4 40.9 12.6 15.4 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 15.4 14.7 12.7 -0.2 43.5 46.4 13.4 15.0 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 10.0 8.0 6.2 -1.2 38.6 38.6 7.6 9.4 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 16.0 14.5 12.3 -0.6 42.4 43.3 13.4 15.5 17.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 15.3 14.7 12.4 -0.3 42.7 45.5 13.1 15.1 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.1 12.7 -0.4 44.2 45.7 13.5 15.4 16.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 16.4 15.5 11.3 -0.6 43.0 43.8 13.2 16.0 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.2 13.9 11.0 -0.5 40.9 42.7 13.2 14.5 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 14.9 13.3 8.3 -1.0 40.6 40.5 12.7 14.2 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 15.6 14.6 12.0 -0.2 44.7 46.1 13.8 15.1 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 15.3 14.1 10.1 -1.2 37.3 38.3 13.7 14.5 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 10.4 8.1 8.1 -0.9 39.9 40.4 7.6 9.9 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 15.4 14.1 12.7 -0.1 45.0 47.1 13.5 14.9 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------