***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2015.-19.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 6.2 6.1 5.4 0.6 64.3 63.7 4.5 5.4 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 5.7 6.0 5.2 0.5 72.2 62.6 4.7 5.0 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 7.9 7.7 5.1 0.5 66.6 62.1 6.9 7.4 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 1.6 1.8 2.8 0.3 59.7 58.8 1.0 1.4 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 4.6 4.7 2.9 0.3 58.7 58.6 3.1 4.3 4.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 3.9 3.8 1.3 0.6 67.2 66.0 2.7 3.4 3.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 5.9 6.2 5.3 0.6 75.0 64.6 4.7 5.3 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 -1.4 -1.8 1.3 0.4 60.4 60.4 -2.5 -1.9 -1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 5.7 5.4 3.4 0.3 61.4 59.9 4.3 5.2 5.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.2 5.5 1.9 0.3 59.0 58.7 4.3 5.0 5.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 5.6 5.4 2.6 0.4 62.7 62.8 3.9 5.0 5.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 4.2 4.0 2.2 0.4 63.7 62.8 3.1 3.7 4.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 5.0 4.8 1.8 0.5 63.7 63.8 3.8 4.4 4.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 4.6 5.6 3.4 0.2 56.6 56.3 4.8 5.3 6.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 6.0 5.9 3.7 0.5 67.8 65.0 4.6 5.2 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 6.2 5.8 2.3 0.5 64.3 63.5 4.7 5.4 5.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 5.8 5.9 5.0 0.5 69.6 61.8 4.6 5.4 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 3.1 2.9 1.0 0.1 50.0 53.1 2.3 2.9 3.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 5.7 5.8 5.1 0.4 68.7 61.2 4.3 5.2 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 0.6 0.4 -0.8 0.2 51.9 54.3 -0.5 0.3 0.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 5.8 5.7 4.5 0.4 62.3 60.7 4.1 5.3 5.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 4.8 5.0 4.9 0.4 64.5 59.5 4.2 4.6 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.2 5.3 4.7 0.3 61.6 59.3 3.9 5.0 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.1 5.1 3.1 0.2 55.5 56.6 4.3 5.0 5.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 6.0 5.9 3.9 0.5 67.4 63.8 4.4 5.3 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 4.4 4.3 1.8 0.3 58.4 59.3 3.7 4.2 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 6.5 6.4 4.7 0.6 67.2 64.5 4.9 5.9 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 4.3 4.1 3.1 0.4 62.9 60.7 2.7 3.7 4.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 1.1 2.1 0.4 0.1 49.8 53.9 1.5 2.1 2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 6.2 6.5 5.3 0.5 72.1 63.3 5.0 5.5 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------