***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2015.-19.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 7.4 7.5 7.4 0.7 65.2 61.4 5.6 6.6 7.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 6.9 7.0 7.3 0.8 66.5 63.3 4.3 5.5 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 8.8 8.9 7.0 0.7 64.9 62.0 6.4 7.8 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 2.5 2.8 4.8 0.6 61.2 61.4 1.2 2.0 3.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 5.6 6.1 4.8 0.5 59.8 60.3 3.6 5.2 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 5.3 5.1 3.1 0.7 65.6 64.5 3.4 4.5 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 7.1 7.3 7.4 0.9 68.0 63.7 4.5 6.3 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 -0.7 -0.9 3.2 0.5 63.2 61.9 -2.3 -1.7 -0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 7.0 6.6 5.3 0.5 61.5 59.9 4.3 6.1 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 7.1 6.6 3.7 0.4 60.6 60.1 4.3 6.2 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 6.8 6.5 4.3 0.5 59.3 61.1 4.4 6.0 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 5.6 5.3 4.0 0.5 62.9 62.1 3.5 4.6 5.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 6.3 6.1 3.5 0.6 63.5 62.1 4.4 5.5 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 7.2 6.5 5.2 0.5 61.1 60.7 4.1 6.0 7.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 7.7 7.3 5.4 0.7 63.9 62.3 5.8 6.7 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 7.3 6.9 4.0 0.6 60.3 61.9 5.2 6.3 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 7.2 7.2 7.1 0.8 67.6 63.2 5.1 6.6 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 5.0 4.5 3.0 0.4 60.1 60.0 2.3 4.0 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 7.0 7.0 7.1 0.7 65.9 62.8 4.2 6.0 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 2.3 2.4 1.3 0.4 63.5 61.3 0.3 1.2 2.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 7.2 7.0 6.4 0.6 64.2 60.8 4.2 6.2 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 6.6 6.4 7.0 0.8 67.6 62.9 4.1 5.8 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 6.7 6.8 6.6 0.6 65.2 62.0 4.1 4.9 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 6.9 6.3 5.0 0.5 60.8 60.6 4.2 5.8 6.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 7.2 7.2 5.8 0.8 67.7 63.0 4.4 6.1 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 5.4 5.8 3.8 0.5 58.4 61.4 4.2 5.1 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 7.5 7.4 6.7 0.8 66.5 62.5 4.9 6.1 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 6.0 5.7 5.0 0.6 61.3 61.7 3.9 5.4 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 3.6 3.0 2.4 0.4 59.3 61.0 0.8 2.2 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 7.2 7.0 7.4 0.8 66.3 62.9 4.5 6.2 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------