***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2015.-12.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.7 5.6 0.0 46.8 49.3 4.9 5.7 7.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 3.8 5.2 5.5 0.1 47.8 50.2 4.9 5.5 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 6.4 7.6 5.3 0.0 47.3 49.7 6.4 7.7 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 2.6 1.4 3.1 0.1 48.3 50.6 0.6 1.6 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.3 4.8 3.1 0.0 46.2 50.4 3.6 5.0 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.5 4.2 1.4 0.0 49.2 49.7 2.8 4.2 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.4 5.5 5.6 0.2 49.1 51.3 5.1 5.6 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -2.9 -2.0 1.3 -0.2 46.0 47.7 -2.4 -1.8 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.2 3.6 0.0 44.2 49.7 4.4 5.4 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 6.2 5.3 1.9 -0.1 44.0 47.8 4.5 5.9 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.6 2.7 0.1 49.5 51.1 4.3 5.6 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.5 2.3 0.0 48.9 49.6 3.1 4.5 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.4 5.0 1.8 0.0 48.8 49.8 4.3 5.1 5.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.0 5.7 3.6 -0.1 45.7 48.3 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 6.4 5.7 3.8 0.2 48.3 51.8 5.2 5.8 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 6.5 6.1 2.3 0.0 50.2 50.5 5.3 6.1 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.6 6.0 5.4 0.1 48.5 50.4 4.7 6.1 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 2.7 3.2 1.1 -0.3 40.9 45.2 2.7 3.8 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 4.1 5.3 5.4 0.0 47.7 49.6 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 -0.3 0.3 -0.7 -0.5 33.4 42.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.2 4.6 0.0 45.1 49.6 4.3 5.6 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.2 5.5 5.3 0.1 48.9 50.2 4.4 5.6 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 4.1 5.4 4.9 0.0 47.9 49.0 4.3 5.5 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 5.9 5.3 3.3 -0.1 45.7 48.1 4.8 5.6 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.7 3.9 0.0 46.7 49.8 4.5 5.8 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.2 4.4 1.8 -0.4 40.8 45.3 3.8 4.9 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 6.7 5.8 4.8 0.0 47.1 49.8 4.8 5.9 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 4.5 4.0 3.4 0.1 49.4 50.8 3.2 4.0 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 1.3 1.6 0.5 -0.3 39.7 44.7 1.1 2.4 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 4.7 5.8 5.6 0.1 47.7 50.1 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------