***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2015.-29.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 5.2 5.3 4.2 1.3 69.4 66.4 2.8 4.4 5.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 3.5 4.0 3.5 0.7 59.3 58.9 2.6 3.1 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 5.9 6.6 3.8 1.0 66.3 62.7 4.9 5.6 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 -0.1 0.6 1.2 0.5 61.5 58.0 -1.9 -0.4 0.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 3.5 4.1 1.8 0.6 63.4 60.1 1.8 3.2 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 3.6 3.8 0.3 1.6 73.2 71.4 1.3 2.1 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 4.1 4.5 3.6 0.8 61.4 61.0 2.6 3.8 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 -1.6 -1.7 0.6 1.7 70.8 70.3 -4.3 -3.6 -1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 5.1 5.0 2.5 0.9 67.7 64.7 2.6 4.1 4.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 4.9 4.9 1.2 1.4 69.0 67.6 2.4 4.2 4.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 4.8 4.8 1.8 1.2 69.9 67.4 2.3 3.8 4.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 3.4 3.8 1.3 1.4 70.7 70.0 1.4 2.0 3.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 5.0 5.4 1.2 1.5 72.7 70.9 2.0 3.4 4.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 4.1 4.3 2.1 0.4 57.8 57.2 2.9 3.8 5.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 4.0 4.9 2.8 1.0 66.6 65.0 3.1 3.8 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 5.3 5.6 1.5 1.2 70.3 68.2 3.1 4.4 5.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 3.8 4.0 3.1 0.5 56.0 56.1 3.0 3.6 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 1.8 2.2 0.0 1.1 63.0 62.6 0.6 1.7 2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 3.8 4.0 3.5 0.6 59.6 58.3 2.7 3.5 4.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 0.1 0.3 -1.7 1.8 71.4 70.1 -2.4 -1.0 0.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 4.0 4.9 3.5 0.9 67.7 63.1 2.6 3.7 4.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 3.6 3.5 3.0 0.2 53.9 53.4 2.3 3.3 3.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 3.4 3.6 3.2 0.6 61.2 58.0 2.2 3.2 3.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 3.8 4.3 1.9 0.7 61.3 59.6 2.0 3.6 4.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 5.0 5.2 3.1 1.2 69.6 66.6 2.8 3.9 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 3.3 4.2 0.8 1.4 65.5 66.8 1.9 3.1 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 5.5 5.6 3.6 1.2 69.4 66.8 3.4 4.6 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 2.7 3.3 1.8 0.7 63.4 60.9 1.6 2.5 3.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 0.8 2.2 -0.8 1.2 64.9 63.2 -0.4 0.4 2.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 4.2 4.8 3.8 0.9 61.8 61.4 3.0 3.7 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------