***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.03.2021.-18.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 30.0 37.7 40.2 76.5 34.7 35.9 36.8 41.6 52.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 23.8 26.0 34.7 73.3 33.2 34.1 25.9 37.9 47.3 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 36.8 43.5 41.6 79.7 37.7 36.6 42.8 45.3 56.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 49.0 63.2 51.8 83.6 43.2 40.3 53.9 64.4 72.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 43.4 46.0 53.1 89.9 44.8 43.1 42.0 50.8 64.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 35.7 44.1 58.1 89.9 45.3 42.2 37.5 46.1 57.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 21.1 25.3 34.6 74.1 35.8 35.3 22.5 32.1 48.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 65.3 75.4 56.2 88.2 42.4 41.5 63.8 85.1 96.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 34.6 38.1 52.1 87.1 40.7 40.8 34.7 43.0 53.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 42.2 52.8 58.4 88.6 41.7 41.7 43.3 58.3 77.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 35.4 48.0 52.1 90.0 45.4 42.9 42.2 52.7 63.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 38.6 48.1 49.7 87.6 44.2 41.6 39.3 50.3 58.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 57.8 48.1 55.4 87.3 42.3 41.2 43.0 51.6 60.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 45.2 53.1 52.2 77.1 34.0 33.1 53.1 68.2 79.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 53.9 48.5 51.8 90.3 48.9 44.8 40.7 49.4 58.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 53.8 43.4 53.2 89.2 44.2 42.3 41.9 48.0 59.2 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 23.8 28.9 34.0 73.8 34.8 35.5 27.4 38.6 46.1 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 33.3 34.9 57.9 84.1 36.1 37.6 33.3 45.7 56.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 25.7 27.9 36.0 73.8 33.2 33.4 27.8 38.9 54.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 36.3 37.8 62.4 84.5 37.1 38.0 37.6 48.1 58.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 31.9 39.4 47.1 83.4 40.3 39.1 34.9 44.4 54.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 30.1 31.3 36.2 73.7 33.7 34.5 31.3 43.4 50.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 30.3 43.4 38.8 75.2 35.3 32.7 42.8 46.9 52.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 39.9 43.9 52.0 82.5 36.8 37.0 42.7 54.2 69.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 39.6 45.5 47.9 78.9 36.9 36.8 43.7 50.6 55.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 33.7 39.0 49.1 81.6 38.1 37.9 37.9 47.2 56.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 33.7 39.7 42.8 76.3 34.4 35.5 39.5 45.2 57.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 51.8 47.9 53.9 89.6 47.6 43.8 39.6 49.0 56.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 48.2 51.8 58.8 83.4 35.7 36.8 50.0 64.8 85.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 24.0 24.2 35.9 74.1 33.8 34.2 24.1 32.3 49.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------