***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.04.2021.-18.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 17.3 22.1 15.1 117.3 66.7 57.6 6.7 15.2 22.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 12.9 16.2 12.7 105.2 62.7 54.3 6.9 11.1 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 19.9 25.9 15.2 120.5 68.4 57.9 11.4 16.4 23.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 26.8 27.1 19.0 130.1 72.6 60.0 14.1 21.7 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 18.5 30.2 19.1 137.5 76.5 61.5 11.2 14.8 23.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 17.2 23.8 20.0 124.6 69.8 58.9 8.2 14.9 21.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 13.1 14.9 12.9 106.4 62.6 53.9 6.1 10.5 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 31.0 39.0 20.0 134.4 73.2 60.2 19.3 28.8 34.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 19.5 29.2 19.2 134.1 75.2 61.0 7.5 16.3 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 18.5 26.4 20.8 131.6 72.6 60.2 9.3 16.3 21.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 17.8 28.2 18.1 137.7 75.2 60.8 9.9 14.0 22.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 18.2 25.3 17.5 133.5 72.8 59.6 6.9 16.0 22.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 21.5 24.7 18.1 116.8 64.6 56.4 12.7 19.1 25.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 23.0 25.9 19.3 116.0 68.3 57.4 14.3 21.0 23.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 18.2 25.6 18.2 135.6 75.8 60.5 11.3 16.0 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 17.9 27.9 18.2 128.5 71.4 59.5 10.2 15.0 26.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.8 12.2 101.1 62.5 52.6 6.8 14.5 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 17.3 19.3 21.3 125.6 70.4 59.7 9.6 15.3 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.6 13.3 108.6 64.3 55.8 8.7 14.5 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 15.6 20.8 21.5 120.2 68.3 58.1 7.1 12.7 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 16.4 27.5 17.1 127.1 72.2 59.6 10.2 12.7 20.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 13.9 16.5 13.0 100.9 61.8 53.7 7.6 11.7 17.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 17.6 21.0 14.6 115.7 68.4 57.9 9.5 16.0 20.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 19.1 29.8 19.3 125.9 71.3 59.3 10.8 15.7 21.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 19.1 23.1 17.1 114.9 65.7 57.5 14.3 16.5 23.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 17.2 18.7 17.1 117.1 63.5 56.3 9.4 15.2 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 17.7 21.9 15.9 114.3 65.6 57.1 11.1 15.1 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 17.6 27.4 19.1 134.2 74.3 60.3 9.3 13.6 21.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 23.6 24.8 21.1 123.1 69.2 59.1 15.5 20.6 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 15.0 17.3 13.4 109.1 62.9 55.0 9.4 13.5 19.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------