***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.04.2021.-11.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 4.2 7.3 11.5 76.7 46.2 41.2 4.2 7.6 9.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 4.0 7.2 10.2 78.7 50.6 42.5 3.0 7.0 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.2 6.7 11.5 79.7 50.3 42.5 4.4 6.7 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 9.3 16.7 13.3 78.9 49.1 41.6 8.4 17.0 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 4.2 7.8 13.4 83.5 50.6 42.8 4.3 7.8 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.8 8.5 14.9 92.4 55.6 46.0 2.5 7.7 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.1 4.6 10.4 81.5 51.2 43.0 1.6 4.3 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 7.5 18.1 14.3 88.4 54.6 42.8 9.4 16.5 19.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.4 7.2 14.0 83.5 50.9 42.6 4.1 7.1 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 5.3 11.7 14.8 84.6 51.8 42.0 6.2 11.5 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 3.3 7.2 12.8 86.1 54.4 42.7 2.9 6.6 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 2.8 8.2 12.8 89.8 55.9 43.4 1.5 6.5 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 2.5 6.5 14.1 88.1 55.1 43.4 2.8 5.3 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 7.5 9.9 14.2 78.0 46.2 40.2 7.2 12.3 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.4 7.7 12.8 81.5 54.9 44.5 2.8 7.2 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.3 9.6 13.5 88.2 55.6 43.6 2.9 7.4 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 6.3 3.9 10.1 80.4 49.6 43.3 2.9 3.9 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 4.3 6.7 14.8 80.5 45.5 39.9 4.9 7.8 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.6 6.0 10.1 76.9 49.0 41.5 3.9 6.1 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 3.6 8.7 16.1 84.9 49.8 41.7 4.8 8.8 11.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 4.0 6.7 12.7 80.2 49.9 42.2 4.4 6.7 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 7.8 5.9 10.3 78.1 47.7 42.9 4.3 6.2 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 5.0 7.8 10.6 76.8 47.9 40.5 4.3 8.5 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 5.4 8.6 13.7 80.2 47.4 41.1 5.4 9.1 10.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 4.5 7.0 12.9 76.3 45.6 41.5 5.7 7.4 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 2.4 7.8 12.6 84.3 56.1 41.4 1.6 5.8 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.8 8.8 12.1 76.6 46.1 41.3 3.4 9.0 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 4.6 10.9 13.5 84.0 54.0 43.6 3.5 8.8 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 7.3 11.0 14.8 79.7 44.7 39.5 9.8 11.7 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.2 6.6 10.5 78.9 50.7 42.5 3.3 6.4 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------