***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.03.2021.-04.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 1.3 3.1 8.1 66.4 45.2 34.1 1.3 3.9 4.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 0.9 2.9 8.2 70.3 47.5 34.9 0.9 3.3 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 1.7 3.9 8.9 69.0 43.5 35.7 1.3 5.1 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 4.2 9.3 10.2 69.0 44.0 35.3 5.8 10.1 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 2.4 3.6 9.9 67.6 42.1 37.5 2.6 5.9 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 3.3 4.4 11.2 69.2 39.2 36.5 3.7 5.9 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 0.7 1.9 8.1 71.1 48.6 36.2 1.0 2.0 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 4.3 5.8 9.6 60.7 36.8 33.0 5.4 9.7 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 1.6 2.9 9.5 63.8 39.1 34.1 1.1 4.3 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 2.0 3.5 9.6 61.1 36.7 32.5 2.3 5.7 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 2.0 3.4 9.0 59.9 36.5 32.8 2.5 4.6 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 2.3 4.4 9.2 62.2 37.9 34.4 3.4 5.4 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 2.4 3.6 9.4 58.8 34.0 33.0 3.1 4.9 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 1.1 1.5 10.4 63.1 37.0 31.8 1.4 2.9 5.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 2.0 6.4 10.5 76.4 50.5 38.5 2.7 6.1 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 2.3 4.7 10.0 64.8 38.2 35.4 3.3 5.8 7.8 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 0.8 2.2 8.9 78.5 51.4 39.3 0.6 2.0 3.3 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 0.9 1.4 10.0 60.8 35.8 31.7 1.0 3.2 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 0.7 1.9 8.6 70.7 45.6 34.7 1.0 2.4 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 2.6 4.1 11.2 58.8 35.2 31.3 3.5 7.8 9.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 1.9 2.2 9.2 66.1 41.6 35.0 1.6 5.7 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 1.0 3.5 9.9 82.2 53.3 39.3 1.0 2.9 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 1.1 2.1 9.0 69.5 42.1 34.4 1.6 3.8 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 1.4 2.7 10.2 65.4 38.5 33.9 2.0 4.3 9.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 2.1 5.6 10.3 71.8 44.6 37.6 3.6 6.2 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 2.1 3.1 10.1 65.5 39.0 36.3 1.7 5.4 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 0.9 2.1 9.1 69.2 45.7 35.3 1.2 2.8 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 2.0 5.4 10.6 73.5 46.8 37.7 4.0 6.1 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 3.1 5.1 11.0 63.0 36.1 32.4 4.9 7.7 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 0.9 2.6 8.0 67.2 44.7 34.0 0.6 3.1 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------