***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.03.2021.-28.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 2.7 1.7 5.5 44.2 30.8 29.8 2.1 8.0 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 1.2 2.2 3.6 33.7 31.4 26.9 2.4 4.5 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 2.4 3.3 6.0 48.7 34.3 32.5 3.2 5.3 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 3.5 4.6 9.4 59.4 40.5 38.4 2.8 6.2 15.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.0 7.3 10.6 74.0 44.6 42.7 3.9 7.8 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 11.2 8.6 12.0 73.7 46.9 44.2 1.8 9.5 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 75 25 0 100 1.3 1.4 3.2 30.7 30.0 26.1 2.4 5.3 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 21.1 12.3 12.4 71.8 41.4 41.4 9.7 18.3 28.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.2 6.0 9.5 67.9 41.2 39.4 4.2 7.4 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 14.1 11.2 13.1 77.2 45.1 43.9 4.9 12.1 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 14.0 9.8 12.1 82.1 47.5 45.9 2.4 10.7 13.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 4.1 6.1 10.2 69.3 40.9 40.1 5.5 9.5 17.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.1 11.3 13.8 86.5 51.4 48.3 4.4 10.8 19.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 5.4 7.6 8.3 50.5 31.0 30.7 7.9 15.9 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 7.1 4.2 10.3 71.1 52.6 46.4 0.9 3.1 15.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.1 8.6 11.5 77.9 45.9 44.9 3.7 9.9 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 1.9 2.0 2.8 27.9 30.3 25.3 2.9 6.3 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.2 8.2 11.8 68.3 39.4 39.2 6.6 11.6 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 2.1 1.4 4.0 35.6 30.3 26.9 1.7 7.7 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.6 8.1 13.7 73.1 43.9 42.7 5.2 8.9 17.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.3 5.6 8.1 61.1 39.3 37.1 4.3 7.1 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 80 20 0 100 2.0 1.3 3.0 27.1 27.7 24.5 4.0 8.4 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 79 21 0 100 2.6 1.7 4.6 37.8 28.2 27.0 4.0 9.4 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 5.9 10.2 8.8 58.5 37.0 35.4 9.0 11.9 19.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 3.4 4.7 7.5 52.0 35.1 33.5 4.1 7.8 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.3 2.8 9.4 61.2 38.3 37.6 2.3 6.4 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 2.0 2.4 5.7 42.8 29.3 28.7 2.7 6.0 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.8 3.2 10.8 69.5 48.2 44.4 0.5 3.3 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 8.8 10.0 11.9 67.8 39.3 39.3 8.7 13.2 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 1.2 1.1 3.9 36.0 30.4 27.5 1.8 4.8 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------