***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.03.2021.-18.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 15.1 16.2 14.0 -0.3 46.3 46.7 15.4 16.3 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 16.7 16.4 14.1 -0.1 49.8 50.1 15.3 16.4 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.5 14.1 -0.4 44.2 45.6 15.7 16.9 17.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 7.7 7.6 10.8 -0.9 32.7 37.4 7.7 9.5 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 16.0 15.9 12.0 -0.9 34.2 39.4 15.8 17.5 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 14.6 15.0 9.5 -1.3 31.0 34.9 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.6 16.5 14.0 -0.1 51.0 49.8 15.1 16.5 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 3.5 3.5 10.1 -1.2 32.0 37.0 3.7 4.7 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 17.1 15.7 12.7 -0.7 36.0 41.3 15.3 16.9 17.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 15.7 15.5 11.0 -1.0 33.2 38.4 15.5 17.0 17.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 15.6 15.5 11.9 -1.1 32.6 37.6 15.6 17.3 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 14.6 14.9 11.1 -1.2 31.7 36.7 14.9 16.1 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 15.7 15.7 10.9 -1.2 31.4 36.6 15.8 17.3 17.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.8 16.4 13.0 -0.4 44.6 46.3 15.8 16.5 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 15.2 15.0 12.2 -0.9 30.7 37.0 15.0 16.5 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 16.1 15.7 11.3 -1.1 31.7 37.0 16.0 17.6 18.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.5 13.9 0.0 52.8 52.4 14.7 15.3 16.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.7 15.2 10.7 -0.8 37.4 41.4 15.0 16.5 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.2 14.2 -0.2 48.5 49.2 15.5 16.3 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.3 10.5 8.2 -0.8 40.9 42.1 10.0 10.9 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 17.1 16.2 13.6 -0.5 39.4 44.0 15.5 16.9 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.2 14.1 0.1 51.3 52.8 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 16.7 16.4 14.2 -0.3 46.6 47.5 15.8 16.4 17.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 16.9 16.2 12.7 -0.6 40.9 43.9 15.5 16.6 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 16.9 16.3 12.5 -0.4 40.9 44.5 15.4 16.6 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 14.8 15.6 10.0 -1.2 31.5 35.1 15.7 16.2 16.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 15.5 16.5 13.4 -0.3 46.0 46.9 15.5 16.5 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 15.2 15.2 11.2 -1.1 30.3 36.0 15.2 16.8 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 11.5 10.7 9.9 -0.8 38.5 42.2 9.5 11.3 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.3 14.0 -0.2 48.5 48.4 15.2 16.3 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------