***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.04.2021.-11.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 17.2 16.9 15.0 0.3 52.5 52.4 15.1 16.6 17.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 17.5 17.6 14.8 0.3 54.2 53.6 15.4 17.1 18.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 18.2 18.2 15.3 0.3 52.4 52.8 15.3 17.9 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.6 11.0 12.6 0.0 50.6 50.2 7.7 10.9 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 18.7 18.3 13.5 0.2 53.7 52.0 15.5 18.1 19.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 17.6 16.9 11.4 0.2 51.4 51.8 14.5 16.8 19.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 17.4 17.3 14.8 0.3 55.2 53.3 15.2 17.2 18.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 6.1 6.3 12.2 0.4 54.6 53.5 2.9 5.6 7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 18.3 17.9 13.9 0.3 53.2 52.9 15.1 17.8 18.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 18.3 18.3 12.9 0.4 53.5 53.5 15.3 17.8 20.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 18.3 17.7 13.4 0.2 52.5 51.7 15.2 17.7 20.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 17.7 17.4 13.0 0.2 53.0 52.3 14.6 17.0 19.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 18.4 17.8 12.2 0.2 51.7 52.3 15.3 17.6 20.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 17.6 18.4 14.1 0.5 55.4 54.7 14.9 17.1 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 18.6 17.3 13.0 -0.3 46.4 47.9 16.3 17.8 19.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 18.9 18.4 12.8 0.1 52.2 51.6 15.8 18.3 20.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 16.6 16.9 14.7 0.4 56.5 53.9 14.7 16.3 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 18.1 17.9 12.8 0.6 55.7 55.2 14.9 17.6 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 17.5 17.2 15.1 0.4 53.4 53.7 15.2 17.1 18.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.5 10.3 0.8 60.7 57.3 9.2 12.8 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 18.1 17.9 14.7 0.3 53.1 52.9 15.7 17.4 18.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 17.4 17.3 14.8 0.4 56.2 54.4 14.8 17.0 18.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 17.5 17.3 15.2 0.4 53.0 53.8 14.9 17.1 19.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 17.4 18.0 14.0 0.4 53.4 54.0 15.1 16.9 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 17.9 17.4 13.4 0.3 51.5 52.0 15.8 17.3 18.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 17.4 16.8 12.0 0.1 51.3 51.4 15.1 16.6 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 17.9 17.6 14.3 0.3 52.4 52.9 15.8 17.5 18.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 18.8 18.0 12.7 -0.1 49.3 49.3 16.3 18.1 19.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 13.3 13.4 11.9 0.7 56.5 55.8 9.3 13.0 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 17.4 17.2 14.9 0.3 53.6 53.0 15.2 17.1 18.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------