***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.03.2021.-04.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 18.0 18.2 15.0 1.2 64.6 62.1 15.0 16.5 18.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 17.9 17.8 15.2 1.4 67.5 64.1 16.4 17.0 17.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 18.4 18.2 15.5 1.4 65.8 63.1 15.6 17.2 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.3 9.8 11.7 0.8 57.4 57.2 6.8 8.8 10.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 17.7 18.1 13.4 1.1 62.2 59.8 15.3 17.2 18.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 15.9 15.5 10.8 0.5 54.7 54.5 14.1 15.1 16.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 17.4 17.8 15.1 1.3 68.0 63.4 15.8 16.3 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 4.6 5.4 11.5 0.8 58.2 57.0 3.3 4.1 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 17.4 17.6 14.3 1.3 64.5 61.6 15.2 16.9 17.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 17.5 17.6 12.5 1.0 60.9 58.9 15.7 17.1 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 17.4 17.7 13.6 1.0 60.1 59.1 15.4 16.9 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.3 12.6 0.9 59.4 58.2 15.1 15.9 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 17.1 17.0 12.8 1.0 58.6 59.0 15.6 16.6 17.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 18.6 18.5 14.8 1.8 68.1 66.3 16.0 17.5 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 16.4 16.5 13.3 0.5 56.1 54.9 14.5 15.9 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 17.9 18.0 12.9 0.9 59.7 58.4 15.5 17.5 18.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 16.9 17.0 15.1 1.5 68.5 65.2 15.5 16.0 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 18.0 17.5 12.3 1.4 62.0 62.0 15.0 16.7 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 17.9 17.9 15.4 1.4 67.5 64.4 16.0 17.0 17.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 11.8 11.8 9.6 1.1 61.4 60.1 10.0 11.1 12.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 18.3 18.1 15.1 1.3 65.5 62.3 15.5 16.9 18.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 18.0 17.9 15.3 1.7 69.5 66.6 16.0 17.0 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 18.3 18.5 15.5 1.5 68.1 64.5 16.3 17.4 18.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 18.4 17.9 14.5 1.6 66.0 64.7 15.8 17.3 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 17.1 17.8 13.7 1.2 63.9 61.0 14.5 16.5 18.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 14.2 16.4 11.5 0.8 58.0 57.4 14.9 15.7 17.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 17.8 18.2 14.5 1.2 65.0 62.1 15.6 16.7 18.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 16.4 16.7 12.2 0.5 55.7 54.9 14.4 15.7 17.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 12.8 12.0 11.6 1.4 63.1 62.1 9.9 11.2 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 17.7 17.7 15.2 1.3 67.2 63.3 16.0 16.8 17.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------