***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.03.2021.-28.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 12.5 12.8 10.1 -2.2 31.9 31.5 12.9 14.2 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 12.7 12.9 10.4 -1.8 34.5 33.4 12.9 14.4 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 13.0 13.0 9.9 -2.6 28.5 29.6 13.4 14.8 16.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 88 12 0 100 3.6 3.8 5.4 -3.8 21.2 22.0 5.4 7.7 9.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 83 17 0 100 12.6 12.7 6.9 -4.0 21.8 22.4 13.7 14.8 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 95 5 0 100 10.3 10.0 3.5 -5.5 15.1 15.7 11.7 13.9 16.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 12.5 12.4 10.3 -1.8 34.5 33.1 12.4 14.0 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 92 8 0 100 -0.4 -0.6 3.9 -5.2 17.2 17.9 1.5 2.9 4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 79 21 0 100 12.5 12.6 8.1 -3.7 23.1 23.8 13.1 14.5 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 87 13 0 100 11.9 12.0 5.3 -4.7 18.8 19.7 13.0 14.6 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 91 9 0 100 11.9 12.1 6.6 -4.7 17.9 19.7 13.0 14.6 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 93 7 0 100 10.5 10.3 5.0 -5.1 17.1 17.7 12.2 13.8 16.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 94 6 0 100 11.7 11.5 5.5 -5.3 15.3 16.1 13.5 14.8 17.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 12.8 12.9 8.4 -3.3 25.1 26.3 13.4 15.6 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 79 21 0 100 12.1 12.8 8.7 -2.9 22.1 24.4 13.5 14.7 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 93 7 0 100 12.0 11.8 5.8 -4.9 17.1 18.2 13.9 15.0 17.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 14.1 12.0 10.3 -1.5 36.7 35.3 11.8 13.7 14.7 30 Palic 37000G16 86 14 0 100 11.6 11.5 4.7 -4.6 19.4 19.7 12.9 14.0 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 12.7 12.7 10.3 -2.0 32.8 32.6 12.8 14.3 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 89 11 0 100 6.0 5.6 2.3 -4.7 17.2 17.7 7.3 9.0 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 12.8 13.0 9.4 -3.1 26.2 27.3 13.4 14.7 16.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 13.2 12.8 10.5 -1.6 35.8 35.3 12.6 15.2 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 12.9 12.7 10.1 -2.4 30.0 30.8 13.0 15.0 16.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 78 22 0 100 12.3 11.8 7.8 -3.7 23.8 24.4 13.2 15.0 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 12.8 12.9 8.7 -2.6 28.8 29.3 13.0 14.6 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 94 6 0 100 10.8 10.5 3.8 -5.4 15.2 15.5 12.5 13.9 16.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 13.0 13.0 9.5 -2.2 31.6 31.2 13.1 14.3 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 88 12 0 100 11.8 11.6 6.4 -3.9 20.2 21.5 13.6 14.9 17.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 86 14 0 100 6.2 5.8 3.9 -4.6 18.2 19.1 7.6 9.5 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 12.6 12.7 10.3 -2.0 32.4 32.3 12.7 13.7 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------