***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.03.2021.-18.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 4.0 5.0 4.4 -0.7 36.6 38.2 4.4 5.3 6.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.8 4.7 4.2 -0.6 37.5 39.3 4.6 4.9 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 6.1 6.9 4.4 -0.7 33.7 36.5 6.8 7.4 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 0.2 0.7 1.6 -0.9 28.4 33.2 0.8 1.5 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 2.9 2.5 2.0 -1.0 28.8 31.8 3.2 4.3 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 2.3 1.9 -0.6 -1.3 23.5 27.8 2.6 3.2 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.1 4.8 4.1 -0.6 36.7 39.0 4.6 5.2 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 -3.3 -3.5 -0.6 -1.3 21.5 26.6 -2.7 -2.1 -1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 4.1 3.8 2.3 -0.9 29.1 32.1 4.4 5.1 5.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 3.9 3.9 0.4 -1.2 23.9 28.3 4.3 5.0 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 3.6 3.1 1.3 -1.2 22.8 27.5 4.1 4.9 5.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 2.2 2.0 0.3 -1.3 21.2 26.2 3.0 3.6 3.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 3.3 3.1 0.1 -1.3 23.7 26.9 3.7 4.3 4.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 4.3 4.4 2.1 -0.9 26.7 31.4 4.9 5.3 5.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 4.3 4.3 2.8 -0.9 25.6 31.3 4.4 4.9 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 4.2 4.0 0.7 -1.2 22.1 27.3 4.7 5.3 5.6 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.3 5.1 4.1 -0.5 39.4 41.2 4.6 5.3 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 1.9 1.8 -0.2 -1.1 25.0 29.7 2.3 2.8 3.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.2 4.4 4.2 -0.6 36.6 38.7 4.3 5.2 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 -0.7 -0.7 -2.1 -1.1 27.7 31.9 -0.5 0.2 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.8 4.2 3.6 -0.7 33.0 35.1 4.2 5.2 5.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 4.7 4.4 4.0 -0.5 39.3 40.5 4.2 4.5 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.0 3.9 4.0 -0.6 34.3 37.3 3.9 4.9 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 3.9 3.6 2.0 -0.9 27.0 32.3 4.2 4.8 5.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.8 4.5 3.2 -0.8 34.1 36.2 4.3 5.1 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 3.3 3.3 -0.3 -1.3 23.1 26.1 3.6 4.1 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.4 5.0 3.8 -0.7 35.4 37.4 4.7 5.7 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 2.6 2.3 1.8 -1.0 24.6 30.5 2.8 3.5 3.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 0.6 0.5 -1.0 -1.2 23.4 28.5 1.4 2.1 2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.3 5.1 4.3 -0.6 36.1 38.4 5.0 5.5 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------