***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.04.2021.-18.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 4.5 6.3 6.8 0.0 46.8 50.2 5.7 6.8 7.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.3 5.3 6.4 -0.2 45.5 48.3 4.3 5.5 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 6.3 8.0 6.8 0.0 47.6 49.9 6.4 8.1 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 0.6 2.4 4.3 0.1 50.4 50.9 0.7 2.4 3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.2 5.4 4.5 0.0 50.0 50.6 2.9 5.4 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.7 4.4 2.6 0.2 52.3 53.2 3.3 4.3 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 4.6 5.8 6.4 -0.2 46.2 48.0 4.6 6.2 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -3.4 -1.2 2.4 0.0 49.4 51.4 -2.3 -1.2 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 4.2 5.8 4.7 0.0 48.0 50.6 3.9 6.1 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.4 6.1 3.2 0.0 48.6 50.7 4.0 6.1 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.2 6.2 3.9 0.0 50.7 51.3 3.7 6.1 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.0 4.7 3.2 0.1 50.5 51.8 3.3 4.6 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.6 5.4 2.8 0.2 51.4 52.5 4.4 5.4 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.5 5.4 4.6 -0.1 45.4 48.9 4.5 6.0 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 5.1 6.7 5.3 0.0 49.7 50.4 5.6 6.8 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.3 6.6 3.4 0.1 51.8 52.3 4.9 6.3 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.5 5.9 6.2 -0.3 44.7 47.0 5.3 6.2 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 2.3 3.6 2.4 -0.1 45.9 49.9 2.7 3.9 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.1 5.4 6.4 -0.1 45.6 48.9 4.5 5.6 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -0.2 0.9 0.4 -0.1 45.6 50.5 0.3 1.5 2.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.3 6.3 6.0 0.0 48.6 50.2 4.1 6.4 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.3 6.1 -0.2 46.1 48.1 4.0 5.5 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 5.7 4.8 6.3 -0.1 45.5 49.3 4.2 5.0 7.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 3.9 5.0 4.3 0.0 45.7 49.3 4.4 5.6 6.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.5 6.4 5.5 0.0 50.0 50.3 4.4 6.4 7.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.7 5.2 2.5 0.1 49.6 52.0 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.6 5.9 6.2 0.0 48.5 50.0 4.6 6.1 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.5 5.3 4.5 0.1 49.7 50.7 3.4 5.3 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 0.9 2.1 1.8 -0.2 44.0 49.0 1.0 2.5 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.6 5.8 6.6 -0.1 47.1 49.0 4.7 6.0 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------