***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.04.2021.-11.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 5.0 5.9 5.5 -0.1 43.9 48.4 5.2 6.4 7.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.1 5.5 5.3 0.0 45.9 49.8 5.0 5.6 6.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.3 7.6 5.5 -0.1 44.0 48.0 7.0 7.8 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 2.6 1.7 2.8 -0.2 45.0 47.3 1.0 1.7 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.7 3.1 -0.2 45.2 47.6 4.1 4.8 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 4.4 3.8 1.0 -0.1 46.2 48.0 2.8 4.2 4.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.2 5.6 5.3 0.0 45.9 49.4 5.1 5.7 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -1.1 -1.7 1.2 0.0 46.6 49.3 -2.3 -1.6 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.2 5.6 3.4 -0.1 47.4 48.3 4.5 5.8 6.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 5.8 5.5 2.0 0.0 48.2 49.2 4.8 5.5 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.2 2.5 -0.2 45.9 47.1 4.7 5.3 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 4.3 3.8 1.9 -0.1 45.8 48.0 2.4 4.0 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.3 4.9 1.4 -0.2 48.0 47.4 3.7 4.9 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 6.4 5.8 3.5 0.0 45.9 49.8 5.6 5.9 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 5.4 6.1 3.8 -0.3 44.8 46.2 5.5 6.6 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 6.4 5.8 1.9 -0.3 45.4 46.5 5.2 6.1 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.6 6.1 5.2 0.0 47.3 50.2 4.9 6.1 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 3.7 3.4 1.4 0.1 49.9 50.5 2.6 3.4 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.2 5.5 5.3 0.0 45.4 49.7 4.5 5.8 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 1.1 0.9 -0.5 0.2 51.5 52.3 -0.2 0.8 1.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.4 5.6 4.7 -0.1 45.8 47.7 4.7 5.9 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 4.5 5.5 5.0 0.0 47.6 50.2 5.0 5.5 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.3 5.2 5.2 0.0 45.5 49.4 4.5 5.5 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.5 5.3 3.2 0.0 47.8 49.6 5.0 5.4 6.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.0 5.5 4.1 -0.1 44.4 48.2 4.9 5.7 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 4.9 4.3 1.2 -0.2 44.8 47.1 3.8 4.6 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.3 6.3 4.9 -0.1 44.6 48.9 5.2 6.4 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 4.6 3.7 2.9 -0.3 44.4 46.4 2.9 4.2 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 3.2 2.8 0.9 0.1 50.5 51.0 1.7 2.8 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.5 5.4 -0.1 45.1 49.2 5.3 5.9 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------