***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.03.2021.-04.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 4.7 4.2 4.8 0.2 51.6 52.8 3.3 4.2 5.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 4.8 4.5 4.5 0.3 52.5 53.4 4.0 4.5 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 7.2 6.9 4.8 0.1 51.5 51.8 6.2 6.8 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 -0.6 0.7 1.8 0.0 47.8 49.7 0.3 0.7 1.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 3.8 3.0 2.3 -0.2 45.2 47.1 2.0 3.3 4.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 1.0 1.3 -1.2 -1.2 32.1 36.3 1.4 2.3 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 4.8 4.5 4.5 0.3 53.4 53.2 3.7 4.3 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -4.1 -3.7 -1.0 -1.1 31.8 36.7 -3.7 -3.0 -1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 4.6 3.9 2.3 -0.3 46.3 45.9 3.2 4.1 5.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 3.1 3.2 0.0 -0.9 35.6 39.3 3.0 4.3 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 2.5 3.0 1.1 -0.8 37.1 40.1 2.8 3.9 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 1.2 1.3 0.4 -0.7 38.3 41.0 1.2 2.3 3.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 2.0 1.9 -0.2 -1.1 33.0 36.5 1.9 3.5 4.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 5.1 4.6 2.4 0.0 46.7 48.3 3.9 4.8 5.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.2 3.6 2.7 -0.4 42.7 44.5 3.2 4.4 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.6 3.8 0.6 -0.8 37.8 40.5 3.5 4.8 5.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 4.9 4.8 4.5 0.5 55.7 55.7 4.2 4.7 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 0.9 1.5 -0.2 -0.6 38.4 42.3 1.2 2.0 2.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 4.7 4.3 4.5 0.2 52.3 53.0 3.7 4.3 5.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 0.0 -1.2 -2.1 -0.7 38.2 41.8 -1.4 -0.6 0.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.0 3.8 -0.1 48.0 48.6 2.9 4.2 5.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 4.1 4.1 4.5 0.4 54.9 54.8 3.2 3.9 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 4.2 4.1 4.3 0.2 52.6 53.0 3.0 4.0 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 4.3 3.3 2.2 -0.2 44.2 46.5 3.1 3.9 5.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 5.0 4.7 3.8 0.2 49.9 51.9 3.4 4.7 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 1.8 2.2 -0.4 -0.8 36.1 40.1 2.2 2.8 4.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 5.4 5.0 4.3 0.2 50.2 51.8 4.1 5.0 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 1.1 1.8 1.7 -0.4 42.6 44.5 1.5 2.4 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 0.4 0.5 -1.2 -0.7 35.7 40.5 0.3 1.8 2.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 5.1 4.8 4.7 0.2 52.8 52.9 3.7 4.6 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------