***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.03.2021.-28.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 92 8 0 100 1.2 1.3 0.4 -2.7 20.9 22.3 2.5 3.6 4.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 86 14 0 100 1.2 1.5 0.5 -2.3 24.7 25.1 2.7 3.5 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 89 11 0 100 2.9 3.0 0.6 -2.7 21.6 22.6 4.8 5.6 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 96 4 0 100 -3.6 -3.7 -2.6 -3.4 16.3 17.6 -2.0 0.2 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 95 5 0 100 -0.5 -0.7 -1.7 -3.4 16.1 18.2 2.1 3.3 3.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 99 1 0 100 -1.9 -2.8 -4.8 -4.0 12.8 14.3 1.1 2.2 3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 83 17 0 100 1.5 1.5 0.4 -2.4 25.4 25.1 2.6 3.5 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 95 5 0 100 -7.8 -8.7 -4.9 -4.2 11.0 13.5 -5.0 -3.0 -2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 92 8 0 100 1.0 0.7 -1.4 -3.1 17.2 19.1 2.1 4.3 5.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 94 6 0 100 1.1 0.4 -3.7 -3.7 14.3 16.4 2.4 4.0 4.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 94 6 0 100 1.0 0.7 -2.4 -3.8 14.0 15.6 2.7 3.9 4.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 96 4 0 100 -1.4 -3.5 -4.2 -4.6 9.5 11.7 1.1 2.4 3.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 95 5 0 100 -0.4 -1.1 -3.5 -4.0 14.6 14.4 2.1 3.1 4.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 96 4 0 100 2.0 1.9 -2.1 -3.7 16.0 17.0 2.9 4.1 5.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 97 3 0 100 1.0 1.4 -0.6 -2.9 17.6 18.6 2.8 3.7 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 94 6 0 100 0.5 -0.6 -3.2 -4.0 12.7 14.4 3.1 4.3 4.9 30 Nis 06700G01 83 17 0 100 1.9 2.2 0.4 -2.1 26.5 27.0 2.6 3.4 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 95 5 0 100 -0.8 -1.1 -4.4 -3.9 15.4 16.5 0.6 1.6 2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 87 13 0 100 0.9 1.2 0.5 -2.4 23.8 24.5 2.7 3.6 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 95 5 0 100 -4.7 -5.2 -6.0 -3.8 15.4 17.0 -2.0 -0.9 -0.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 90 10 0 100 1.2 1.4 0.1 -2.8 21.1 21.6 1.9 3.7 4.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 85 15 0 100 1.2 1.5 0.6 -2.2 25.1 25.6 2.0 2.9 4.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 91 9 0 100 0.6 1.0 0.2 -2.6 21.8 22.5 2.1 3.2 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 93 7 0 100 0.8 0.8 -1.8 -3.3 17.7 19.1 2.0 3.7 4.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 94 6 0 100 0.6 0.7 -0.6 -3.1 19.0 19.5 2.2 3.9 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 95 5 0 100 -0.2 -1.9 -4.6 -4.3 11.3 12.5 1.5 3.1 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 94 6 0 100 -0.1 0.3 -0.1 -2.9 20.7 21.3 3.3 4.4 4.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 96 4 0 100 -0.7 -0.8 -2.1 -3.4 16.3 17.6 0.7 2.5 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 96 4 0 100 -2.8 -3.1 -5.7 -4.2 14.5 15.4 -0.6 0.8 1.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 86 14 0 100 1.7 1.5 0.5 -2.5 23.8 24.1 2.8 4.0 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------