***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.03.2016.-17.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 45.8 46.7 53.5 105.3 57.5 55.0 36.2 44.2 50.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 25.6 38.2 46.1 95.1 52.8 47.5 24.6 37.3 44.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 50.0 54.9 54.4 107.4 62.0 55.6 36.0 45.3 59.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 64.1 65.1 60.0 105.9 57.8 54.2 50.7 61.1 70.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 50.8 49.7 57.2 102.8 56.9 52.3 40.1 46.5 63.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 48.7 47.3 61.9 101.5 57.8 53.1 36.2 45.3 52.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 21.4 35.7 45.3 95.8 55.9 48.6 22.0 32.8 45.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 81.4 85.4 63.7 103.0 56.3 52.7 62.8 76.6 90.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 45.3 43.3 59.4 104.7 58.1 52.7 32.3 40.0 52.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 61.3 63.7 66.5 104.2 56.9 52.9 41.1 55.5 65.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 54.1 54.9 56.3 101.8 55.8 51.6 35.2 50.2 61.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 53.2 54.0 56.7 104.9 60.4 54.1 34.6 48.9 56.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 52.0 55.4 62.5 104.8 58.5 54.0 38.4 46.8 58.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 47.5 67.8 69.1 102.1 58.8 51.2 51.0 63.6 74.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 49.3 50.0 55.5 110.6 62.7 56.7 39.3 46.8 51.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 49.2 50.1 57.8 103.3 58.8 52.9 38.1 43.1 56.4 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 24.5 38.8 42.7 89.1 51.1 44.2 23.8 38.1 44.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 33.1 46.7 72.5 105.9 62.0 54.1 32.9 42.3 54.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 28.2 43.4 48.7 97.8 55.5 48.9 25.0 38.3 51.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 52.5 47.0 74.5 101.0 53.4 51.4 36.5 46.9 54.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 47.3 47.6 56.2 106.2 60.4 54.4 31.8 41.9 53.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 30.7 42.2 46.3 90.4 53.3 44.4 32.1 41.7 43.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 31.1 49.1 53.4 102.7 59.9 52.1 43.1 47.6 51.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 41.1 58.7 66.2 107.2 62.8 54.2 36.0 52.9 61.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 50.6 50.1 59.2 102.9 54.8 53.0 38.0 48.2 53.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 47.1 51.2 60.4 107.1 64.8 55.8 35.8 43.2 51.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 48.0 44.3 56.0 102.9 55.2 53.3 36.6 44.0 52.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 47.5 49.5 57.7 108.1 61.1 55.5 34.8 44.6 53.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 50.2 76.5 73.3 103.6 58.7 53.2 49.6 61.6 83.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 38.2 38.4 48.2 99.0 54.8 50.9 21.6 31.9 43.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------