***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.04.2016.-17.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 16.8 15.5 12.4 94.3 59.4 47.6 8.1 15.2 17.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 5.4 7.1 9.5 73.4 45.7 41.7 4.4 9.1 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 9.1 17.6 11.0 82.3 55.3 45.0 9.6 16.6 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 15.5 25.4 13.2 91.5 59.5 49.9 14.8 22.4 27.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 10.1 17.1 12.4 87.8 58.0 47.4 10.5 14.9 21.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 16.7 15.8 15.6 101.5 56.4 52.8 9.1 14.6 23.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 7.2 12.6 10.1 79.3 51.9 42.5 4.5 12.5 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 20.1 27.7 13.3 77.9 48.4 44.4 18.2 27.9 34.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 7.7 16.2 12.6 83.5 53.1 45.8 8.8 14.6 21.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 9.6 15.9 14.1 80.9 48.4 44.4 10.7 16.5 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 8.2 16.1 11.6 83.4 51.5 46.0 11.8 16.0 22.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 20.3 18.2 11.8 81.6 49.4 45.9 9.3 18.5 22.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 20.8 19.0 14.7 94.2 52.3 49.1 14.5 18.5 24.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 10.7 19.8 13.8 73.0 46.5 40.3 14.0 20.5 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 9.9 20.7 11.9 88.1 63.8 50.4 8.9 16.8 21.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 19.4 18.0 13.0 91.8 55.4 48.7 9.6 16.2 20.1 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 6.1 11.4 9.5 74.9 49.2 40.7 6.4 11.9 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 8.9 13.8 15.1 77.6 41.8 41.2 10.1 14.6 21.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 5.4 9.4 9.6 72.6 47.4 41.8 6.6 9.9 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 9.3 15.3 15.9 77.7 47.5 43.0 10.0 15.8 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 7.2 14.3 11.8 86.0 52.8 46.6 11.8 13.5 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 4.9 11.5 10.1 75.4 52.4 41.3 7.8 10.7 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 8.0 13.4 10.4 73.6 52.3 41.8 8.7 12.4 19.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 8.3 14.7 12.9 75.0 43.7 41.0 12.1 16.2 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 9.5 17.8 13.5 91.5 56.9 47.8 12.5 15.8 22.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 18.4 16.6 14.0 92.0 54.5 49.4 10.7 16.2 18.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 8.7 19.9 13.4 93.9 58.4 47.3 10.7 14.6 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 9.2 21.4 13.0 93.2 62.5 51.1 7.6 15.5 22.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 13.5 17.4 14.9 74.8 41.5 40.4 13.4 21.2 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 5.9 10.1 10.0 76.8 49.5 43.1 4.6 10.3 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------