***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.04.2016.-10.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 3.6 7.5 14.3 109.5 62.1 52.1 3.1 5.9 8.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.2 10.8 14.1 114.8 64.2 54.1 2.9 7.9 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.7 11.5 15.3 120.5 68.0 56.7 3.7 6.5 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 6.9 14.8 14.5 98.3 59.3 52.4 6.2 12.4 17.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.9 10.8 14.3 101.7 59.3 52.2 4.3 7.3 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.4 7.3 14.4 89.8 52.1 47.3 4.3 6.6 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.6 6.9 13.5 113.9 63.5 54.1 1.6 5.3 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 8.1 19.0 15.5 104.8 60.7 51.0 9.2 16.1 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.6 7.4 15.3 105.4 59.1 53.0 4.0 6.1 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.9 12.6 16.9 107.5 60.4 52.7 5.1 10.7 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.9 8.5 13.3 100.7 58.7 51.5 2.8 7.0 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.9 9.9 13.3 101.5 61.3 50.3 1.5 8.1 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.7 10.2 14.1 94.0 54.1 47.9 2.8 7.3 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.6 13.5 18.6 114.8 65.5 55.2 9.1 11.0 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.6 12.7 95.3 60.8 52.6 2.1 5.3 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.5 7.6 13.1 94.5 56.9 49.3 2.5 6.8 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.3 5.7 13.2 108.4 62.9 53.2 2.6 4.0 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.7 12.9 18.8 111.4 64.2 54.4 4.1 8.2 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.0 12.9 14.6 117.1 65.2 55.0 3.7 6.8 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 3.3 10.2 18.4 103.1 60.8 50.5 3.1 6.4 11.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 2.8 10.8 14.5 107.9 61.5 53.1 3.2 5.5 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 8.0 9.6 14.1 108.0 62.5 52.4 3.2 6.1 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.0 13.7 15.5 123.5 68.8 57.3 3.1 6.8 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.7 9.7 18.0 118.2 67.0 56.4 4.7 6.8 9.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.2 9.7 15.5 105.0 61.7 52.0 5.0 6.9 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 7.7 11.0 14.4 103.0 59.8 51.7 1.9 5.6 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.0 9.1 15.0 109.1 62.9 52.1 3.3 6.8 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 8.2 8.3 13.0 92.3 57.4 50.8 3.4 6.1 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.0 15.3 18.5 107.6 62.7 52.8 7.3 12.0 16.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.2 7.0 14.3 116.6 64.3 54.7 3.6 5.8 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------