***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.03.2016.-03.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 1.2 3.0 9.9 77.6 48.4 40.5 1.3 3.3 5.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 1.4 4.1 10.0 83.6 53.6 41.9 1.3 3.5 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 1.4 3.0 10.0 78.0 44.5 39.8 2.3 4.4 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 4.2 8.7 11.2 78.6 48.1 40.1 4.9 8.7 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 3.0 6.8 10.4 74.8 47.8 39.1 3.4 7.3 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 2.2 4.9 11.8 75.7 44.9 37.8 3.7 5.0 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 0.7 2.0 9.9 82.8 51.4 41.5 0.4 1.9 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 5.5 12.0 11.8 81.7 49.6 39.4 5.4 12.0 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 1.4 4.3 10.4 71.7 47.2 36.9 2.8 4.4 6.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 2.0 6.1 11.8 80.9 51.8 39.2 2.1 5.9 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 1.7 3.9 10.8 75.9 39.8 37.3 3.4 4.3 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 1.8 4.3 10.6 76.9 43.2 36.8 2.8 4.7 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 1.7 3.9 11.0 73.3 40.9 35.0 3.4 4.8 9.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 1.7 3.7 12.9 75.4 44.5 37.3 2.2 3.9 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.3 5.0 11.1 83.9 51.3 42.4 2.7 4.9 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 1.9 3.3 10.8 74.9 39.0 36.1 2.8 4.7 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 1.0 2.9 10.1 85.6 56.0 42.9 1.1 2.4 3.5 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 1.4 3.2 13.1 83.1 46.9 39.4 1.0 4.5 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 0.8 2.0 10.2 83.0 50.2 41.7 0.6 2.0 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 1.8 5.1 14.0 81.0 48.2 40.0 3.7 5.2 9.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 2.0 5.3 9.9 73.3 48.7 39.0 1.9 5.8 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 1.7 4.3 10.3 82.0 51.9 42.1 1.2 4.3 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 1.2 3.3 10.7 81.1 47.0 41.1 2.2 3.8 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 1.2 3.1 12.3 81.2 46.2 39.3 2.0 3.7 9.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.3 6.6 11.1 78.2 50.3 41.2 3.8 6.6 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 1.7 2.9 10.8 72.2 42.1 35.8 2.0 5.4 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 1.4 3.5 10.8 79.3 51.2 41.0 1.9 3.3 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 1.9 4.7 11.2 83.6 49.5 41.4 3.5 4.7 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 2.5 6.8 14.2 85.5 49.7 41.0 3.7 6.8 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 0.9 2.5 9.9 81.8 48.4 41.3 1.3 2.5 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------