***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.03.2016.-27.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.8 17.2 16.8 142.8 73.7 56.1 1.3 5.7 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.2 9.4 12.5 110.9 64.9 50.2 2.2 4.3 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 2.9 20.8 18.1 154.0 78.5 59.2 2.3 5.1 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 14.6 18.9 21.1 159.4 77.8 63.7 2.8 6.2 9.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 14.2 17.0 20.1 148.8 76.1 62.4 2.0 4.1 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 15.1 17.7 20.1 144.2 76.8 64.3 1.5 9.7 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.4 9.2 11.8 109.7 63.0 48.9 2.4 5.3 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 21.8 26.9 23.0 152.3 80.0 65.3 8.5 14.4 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 11.7 19.7 21.2 166.4 81.9 64.3 1.3 4.2 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 16.8 23.2 23.7 149.9 80.8 63.2 1.8 6.9 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 17.5 24.8 20.6 149.7 78.7 63.1 0.6 4.1 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 16.9 24.8 20.9 167.8 82.7 67.9 1.4 5.9 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 16.7 21.2 22.7 162.0 79.5 66.1 2.4 9.4 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 18.2 31.4 23.7 154.7 77.6 61.5 4.9 13.9 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 14.6 26.4 19.9 196.4 86.6 66.2 1.2 4.7 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 13.7 16.5 20.9 155.2 76.9 64.8 1.5 7.9 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.0 8.6 9.9 88.3 57.0 43.9 3.2 6.4 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 13.6 16.7 25.6 156.7 82.0 66.4 3.5 7.5 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.9 14.8 14.3 121.2 68.2 53.1 2.2 7.4 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 17.3 20.4 26.2 146.8 77.2 66.8 4.9 10.8 15.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 12.7 19.3 20.0 163.5 79.7 62.0 3.2 5.2 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.6 10.0 11.8 96.8 56.9 46.5 3.4 7.6 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 12.1 18.2 16.9 138.5 74.6 57.6 2.7 9.1 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 19.8 25.9 23.0 162.7 81.8 63.9 4.3 10.5 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.2 10.4 19.1 138.4 72.2 57.4 2.0 6.4 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 11.3 14.0 21.3 173.2 79.3 70.5 1.6 4.8 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.2 12.9 16.8 131.5 70.9 54.8 2.5 4.5 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 13.8 21.6 20.5 174.1 82.2 64.8 0.5 2.7 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 23.4 30.4 25.7 150.9 81.5 66.7 5.9 11.8 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.3 8.3 14.0 123.9 69.5 53.2 2.0 4.8 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------