***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.04.2016.-17.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 17.0 16.8 16.6 0.4 57.9 57.0 14.3 16.6 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 16.9 17.4 16.5 0.6 62.2 58.3 14.5 16.4 17.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 16.9 17.3 16.9 0.6 59.6 57.8 15.1 16.5 17.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 9.6 9.6 14.4 0.3 55.1 54.9 7.9 9.2 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 17.7 17.7 15.0 0.4 57.2 55.4 15.6 17.5 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 16.4 16.0 12.9 0.1 51.3 52.2 14.9 15.9 17.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 17.1 17.4 16.4 0.5 61.2 58.0 14.5 16.7 17.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 5.0 5.3 13.5 0.4 58.4 55.3 3.3 4.5 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 17.0 17.1 15.4 0.5 59.8 56.5 14.7 16.7 17.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 16.8 17.2 14.2 0.5 59.2 55.9 14.3 16.4 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 17.2 17.2 14.7 0.3 57.0 54.6 15.7 16.9 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 16.3 16.6 14.3 0.3 57.1 54.4 14.5 15.9 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 17.3 17.0 13.5 0.2 54.7 53.0 15.7 16.8 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 16.3 17.0 15.4 0.8 60.9 58.7 14.5 15.8 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 17.1 16.9 15.1 0.1 53.8 53.9 15.1 16.8 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 17.5 17.3 14.2 0.2 54.6 53.5 15.9 17.1 18.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 16.3 17.4 16.4 0.7 64.4 59.6 13.9 15.9 17.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 16.5 16.6 13.9 0.6 59.2 56.6 13.8 16.1 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 16.6 16.9 16.7 0.6 61.4 58.5 14.5 16.1 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.5 11.2 0.5 58.0 56.1 9.5 10.8 12.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 17.2 17.2 16.3 0.5 59.6 57.3 15.0 17.0 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 16.8 17.3 16.5 0.8 64.3 60.2 14.3 16.4 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 16.7 17.0 16.8 0.7 60.9 59.0 14.9 16.3 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 16.8 16.8 15.4 0.6 60.7 57.7 14.4 16.5 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 16.8 16.9 15.1 0.4 57.2 56.7 15.5 16.5 17.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 16.7 16.6 13.4 0.2 54.8 53.7 15.0 16.4 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 16.9 16.7 15.9 0.4 58.3 56.8 15.0 16.5 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 16.9 16.8 14.6 0.2 53.4 53.9 15.6 16.5 17.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 11.0 11.2 13.0 0.6 58.4 56.6 8.6 10.4 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 16.8 17.0 16.5 0.5 60.8 57.7 14.5 16.3 17.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------