***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.04.2016.-10.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 17.5 17.6 16.3 1.0 63.4 61.5 16.1 16.8 17.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 18.7 18.3 16.1 1.1 62.6 62.3 15.9 17.2 18.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 17.9 18.4 16.6 1.0 62.7 61.2 16.5 17.3 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.5 11.3 14.0 0.7 56.9 58.8 9.1 11.1 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 18.7 18.9 14.9 1.0 59.7 61.2 16.6 17.9 19.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 17.5 17.9 13.1 1.2 60.9 61.0 15.4 17.1 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 17.3 17.9 16.1 1.1 63.8 62.2 16.1 17.0 18.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 6.4 6.6 13.6 1.1 58.9 60.5 4.4 6.2 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 17.9 18.6 15.3 1.1 60.2 61.4 16.2 17.1 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 17.8 19.1 14.3 1.1 59.7 61.1 16.3 17.0 19.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 18.3 18.5 14.8 1.1 58.9 61.3 16.5 17.7 19.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 17.3 18.5 14.4 1.1 60.5 60.6 15.5 16.6 19.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 19.5 19.4 13.8 1.3 64.2 61.8 16.6 18.0 19.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 18.8 18.9 15.5 1.2 65.2 62.3 16.1 17.3 19.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 18.2 18.1 14.4 0.4 55.2 55.6 16.7 17.6 19.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 18.7 19.6 14.4 1.2 61.2 61.5 17.0 18.1 20.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 17.3 17.6 16.0 1.1 65.3 62.4 15.4 16.1 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 17.4 18.4 14.1 1.2 62.5 60.9 16.0 16.6 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 18.8 18.1 16.4 1.1 62.7 62.4 16.2 17.2 18.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 12.3 13.3 11.4 1.1 59.5 60.2 10.5 11.6 13.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 18.0 18.5 16.0 1.0 61.4 60.9 16.6 17.4 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 18.4 18.9 16.0 1.1 66.4 62.6 15.9 16.7 18.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 18.9 18.2 16.6 1.2 63.0 62.8 15.6 17.5 19.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 17.5 18.7 15.4 1.2 63.5 61.6 16.4 17.0 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 17.9 18.2 14.7 0.9 61.6 60.5 16.4 17.3 18.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 17.8 18.5 13.4 1.1 64.2 60.6 15.4 17.4 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 17.9 18.3 15.7 1.1 62.9 62.0 16.5 17.4 18.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 18.9 18.4 14.2 0.7 56.1 58.0 17.2 18.4 19.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 12.4 13.6 13.2 1.2 61.0 60.5 10.6 11.8 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 17.5 18.0 16.2 1.1 62.4 61.9 16.3 17.0 18.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------