***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.03.2016.-03.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 16.4 17.0 14.6 0.7 58.5 57.2 14.7 15.7 17.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 17.2 17.2 14.5 0.6 57.0 56.6 15.4 17.0 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 17.4 17.4 14.8 0.6 57.4 56.0 15.4 17.0 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.2 8.8 11.7 0.4 52.6 54.1 6.4 8.7 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 17.1 17.2 13.0 0.6 55.3 55.5 15.2 16.5 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.6 11.1 0.8 62.1 58.4 13.7 14.9 16.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.8 16.9 14.4 0.6 55.6 56.4 15.2 16.6 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 4.6 4.5 11.6 0.9 60.4 58.6 2.9 4.0 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 17.0 16.9 13.8 0.6 56.6 55.7 14.7 16.6 17.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 16.9 17.2 12.5 0.8 59.0 57.1 15.0 16.5 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 17.0 16.9 13.3 0.7 58.2 56.7 14.7 16.5 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.1 12.4 0.8 60.3 58.6 14.3 15.6 16.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 17.0 17.0 12.6 0.8 61.1 59.0 15.2 16.4 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 14.4 17.1 13.9 0.7 56.8 56.6 15.5 16.9 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 16.4 16.1 13.2 0.2 53.4 52.8 14.0 16.0 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 17.4 17.0 12.7 0.7 57.5 57.2 15.7 16.8 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.2 16.1 14.2 0.7 55.8 56.6 14.4 16.0 16.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.5 17.1 12.0 0.9 59.3 57.9 14.9 16.0 17.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 16.8 17.1 14.6 0.7 57.4 56.6 15.3 16.5 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.7 9.8 1.1 62.9 60.8 9.6 10.9 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 17.1 17.2 14.5 0.6 55.8 55.8 15.2 16.7 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 17.1 17.0 14.4 0.7 56.1 56.9 15.0 16.7 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 17.3 17.5 14.8 0.7 56.9 56.7 15.5 17.0 17.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 17.2 17.2 13.8 0.7 57.6 56.7 15.4 16.7 17.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 16.4 16.8 13.3 0.7 57.7 56.9 14.9 15.9 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 17.3 16.9 11.5 0.9 66.2 60.8 14.4 15.6 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 16.9 17.1 14.1 0.7 58.5 57.8 14.7 16.5 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 16.5 16.2 12.3 0.3 52.7 53.6 13.5 16.0 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.6 11.4 1.0 60.8 59.2 9.6 10.8 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.8 17.1 14.6 0.6 57.3 56.7 15.3 16.6 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------