***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.03.2016.-27.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 14.3 15.2 12.7 0.2 56.9 53.0 12.2 13.9 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 14.2 13.6 12.4 -0.1 49.0 49.4 12.5 13.7 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 15.4 15.1 12.8 -0.1 51.0 49.8 12.6 15.0 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 8.0 7.6 9.9 0.1 55.3 52.9 4.3 7.5 8.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 15.8 15.5 11.4 0.2 54.6 53.2 13.0 15.3 16.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 14.2 15.8 9.9 1.1 63.4 60.9 11.2 13.7 16.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 13.5 13.1 12.3 0.0 50.2 50.9 12.2 13.1 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 3.5 3.2 9.6 0.4 57.0 55.3 0.6 2.8 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 15.6 15.3 12.2 -0.1 51.3 51.2 12.9 15.1 16.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 15.9 15.6 10.4 0.0 53.2 52.0 12.5 15.5 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 15.8 15.8 11.7 0.1 55.5 52.8 12.7 15.3 16.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 14.9 14.9 10.6 0.4 58.4 55.6 11.5 14.5 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 15.3 16.6 11.7 0.7 64.5 58.6 13.0 14.9 16.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.7 14.5 11.6 -0.6 44.5 45.4 12.9 15.3 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 14.9 14.6 12.3 0.1 55.1 52.9 13.2 14.2 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 16.1 16.4 11.3 0.4 59.8 56.0 12.7 15.6 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.1 11.9 -0.1 50.9 48.9 11.7 12.9 14.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 15.3 14.7 9.5 -0.1 51.5 50.3 12.0 14.6 15.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 14.7 14.2 12.5 -0.2 48.9 48.8 12.2 14.2 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 9.6 9.4 7.7 0.7 58.0 57.3 6.4 9.2 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 15.6 15.2 12.9 -0.1 50.4 50.7 12.8 15.1 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 14.9 14.7 12.1 -0.2 51.3 47.9 12.2 14.5 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.2 14.6 12.6 -0.3 47.6 48.3 12.4 14.7 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.0 11.6 -0.4 47.3 47.4 12.2 15.2 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 14.6 15.6 11.9 0.3 58.7 54.5 12.4 14.3 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 14.5 15.7 10.1 1.2 66.0 63.0 12.1 14.0 15.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 14.3 15.2 12.3 0.4 58.9 55.1 12.5 14.0 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 15.5 15.7 11.0 0.2 54.7 53.3 12.4 14.9 16.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.2 9.0 0.2 53.8 52.8 6.8 10.0 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 14.0 13.6 12.5 0.0 49.9 50.7 11.9 13.6 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------