***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.03.2016.-17.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 5.9 5.8 5.8 0.8 70.3 65.6 4.4 5.1 5.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 4.9 5.3 5.4 0.7 65.8 63.7 4.5 4.8 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 7.6 7.6 5.8 0.8 68.9 65.1 6.7 7.2 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 2.0 1.8 3.1 0.8 68.5 64.6 0.5 1.4 1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 4.2 4.4 3.8 0.7 66.3 63.8 3.0 4.1 4.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 3.5 3.7 1.7 1.1 72.1 69.8 2.5 3.1 3.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 5.2 5.5 5.3 0.7 67.0 63.6 4.5 5.1 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 -1.7 -1.5 1.8 1.1 73.2 70.8 -2.9 -2.1 -1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 5.3 5.2 4.0 0.7 66.7 63.8 4.3 4.8 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 5.2 5.4 2.6 0.9 68.6 66.8 4.2 4.8 5.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 44 56 100 5.1 5.0 3.2 0.7 67.0 64.8 4.0 4.8 5.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 3.8 3.6 2.6 0.9 72.3 67.5 2.7 3.5 3.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 4.6 4.4 2.2 0.7 66.5 64.1 3.6 4.1 4.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 5.6 5.7 4.0 0.8 70.3 66.0 4.8 5.2 5.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 5.4 5.6 4.3 0.7 68.5 63.8 4.2 4.8 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 5.6 5.5 2.7 0.7 67.8 64.2 4.6 5.2 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 5.2 5.3 5.1 0.6 63.2 61.3 4.6 5.1 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 3.1 3.0 2.2 1.0 69.2 66.7 2.1 2.7 3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 5.4 5.4 5.4 0.8 67.3 65.0 4.2 5.0 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 0.6 0.8 0.3 1.5 76.1 73.5 -0.5 0.0 0.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 5.3 5.3 5.3 0.7 66.3 64.2 4.1 5.0 5.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 4.7 4.6 5.2 0.7 66.4 63.2 4.1 4.4 4.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 5.0 5.1 5.4 0.9 73.0 67.4 3.9 4.7 5.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 5.0 5.1 3.9 0.7 67.3 64.4 4.1 4.7 5.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 5.4 5.5 4.7 0.9 71.2 66.6 4.2 4.9 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 4.4 4.3 1.9 0.9 72.1 68.0 3.6 4.0 4.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 6.2 6.5 5.3 0.8 70.5 65.3 4.7 5.6 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 4.0 3.5 3.4 0.6 64.6 62.4 2.6 3.3 3.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 2.6 2.9 1.6 1.2 72.3 70.3 1.2 2.0 2.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 5.9 5.7 5.6 0.8 68.7 65.1 4.9 5.4 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------