***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.04.2016.-10.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 7.2 7.0 7.1 1.4 67.7 66.0 5.5 6.0 6.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 6.7 6.6 6.7 1.5 70.0 67.0 4.6 5.9 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 9.0 8.8 7.0 1.3 66.0 65.7 7.2 8.1 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 3.3 3.0 4.0 0.9 65.6 62.0 1.7 2.1 3.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 5.6 5.0 4.4 1.0 64.1 62.7 3.6 4.6 5.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 4.6 4.4 2.2 1.1 67.4 64.3 2.6 4.0 4.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 6.9 6.6 6.7 1.5 69.5 66.9 5.2 5.9 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 -1.4 -0.8 2.6 1.2 65.0 65.0 -2.4 -1.8 -0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 6.4 6.5 4.7 1.0 63.7 63.2 4.7 5.2 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 5.7 6.3 3.3 1.1 64.7 64.1 4.5 5.3 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 6.3 6.2 3.7 1.0 63.9 62.9 4.2 5.4 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 4.0 4.5 3.1 1.1 64.1 63.6 2.6 3.6 4.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 5.7 5.4 2.5 0.9 61.0 61.9 3.8 4.9 5.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 7.0 6.9 4.9 1.3 63.5 66.0 5.5 6.0 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 7.2 6.9 4.8 0.7 59.6 59.5 5.8 6.3 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 6.7 6.5 3.1 0.9 62.4 62.2 5.3 5.7 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 7.0 6.2 6.5 1.4 65.2 66.1 5.6 5.8 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 4.2 4.0 3.0 1.3 65.7 65.1 2.1 3.4 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 6.2 6.5 6.7 1.5 70.7 67.6 4.9 5.5 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 1.8 2.0 1.0 1.7 70.3 68.3 -0.5 0.5 1.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 6.5 6.5 6.2 1.2 65.5 64.9 4.9 5.4 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 5.9 5.9 6.3 1.4 67.5 66.7 4.8 5.3 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 6.2 6.5 6.6 1.5 69.7 67.8 4.2 5.4 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 6.5 6.4 4.6 1.1 62.5 64.6 4.3 5.8 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 6.7 6.7 5.6 1.4 69.3 65.8 4.7 5.9 6.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 4.7 4.7 2.2 0.8 59.4 61.2 3.7 4.4 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 7.9 7.7 6.5 1.5 70.1 65.9 5.2 6.4 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 5.4 4.9 4.0 0.7 61.2 59.2 2.7 4.0 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 3.8 3.5 2.5 1.4 66.8 66.3 2.0 2.8 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 7.0 6.8 6.8 1.4 69.0 66.6 5.1 6.2 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------