***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.03.2016.-27.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 4.6 4.8 3.8 1.1 69.5 65.4 2.4 3.4 4.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 90 10 100 3.3 3.8 3.2 0.6 64.4 59.4 2.1 3.1 3.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 6.3 6.7 4.2 1.1 71.7 67.0 4.2 5.5 6.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 44 56 100 0.5 0.7 1.8 1.4 69.8 68.6 -2.3 -0.8 0.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 4.2 4.4 2.9 1.4 73.5 68.9 1.4 3.2 3.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 14 86 100 3.2 3.4 1.0 2.5 79.3 77.9 0.4 2.3 2.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 90 10 100 3.4 3.7 3.1 0.6 62.6 58.9 2.5 3.2 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 -1.9 -1.5 0.9 2.2 78.3 75.5 -5.5 -3.1 -2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 4.7 5.3 3.0 1.4 73.8 69.2 2.1 3.4 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 4.7 5.3 1.6 1.8 74.7 71.5 2.1 3.3 4.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 4.7 5.0 2.7 1.6 73.3 69.6 2.4 3.5 4.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 3.5 4.1 1.8 1.7 76.1 72.2 0.8 2.2 3.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 4.0 4.3 2.0 1.8 74.9 71.4 1.1 3.1 4.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 4.6 4.7 2.7 1.2 71.6 68.5 3.1 3.9 4.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 4.6 5.0 3.2 1.4 70.1 68.6 2.3 3.0 4.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 5.0 5.4 2.2 1.6 73.5 70.8 2.5 4.0 5.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 92 8 100 3.1 3.4 2.7 0.3 58.0 55.3 2.2 2.9 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 2.6 3.0 1.1 1.8 73.6 71.4 0.7 1.6 2.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 3.4 4.5 3.4 0.8 67.8 62.5 2.4 3.2 4.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 14 86 100 0.6 1.0 -0.3 2.8 81.9 79.1 -2.4 -1.3 0.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 46 54 100 4.4 4.7 3.9 1.1 71.3 66.8 2.0 3.3 4.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 92 8 100 2.9 3.3 3.2 0.5 61.5 59.3 1.7 2.7 3.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 4.0 4.6 3.6 1.1 74.3 68.0 1.6 3.0 3.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 4.3 4.7 2.9 1.3 71.2 68.3 1.9 3.3 4.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 4.4 4.8 3.4 1.3 73.4 69.1 2.1 3.3 4.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 4.5 4.6 1.6 2.3 77.0 75.6 1.3 2.9 3.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 4.6 5.0 3.5 1.1 70.4 65.4 2.2 3.7 4.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 3.2 3.6 2.4 1.4 69.6 67.8 0.2 2.2 3.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 1.8 2.2 0.5 2.4 79.4 76.4 -1.6 0.5 1.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 4.0 4.8 3.6 0.8 67.6 62.9 2.6 3.7 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------