***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.03.2017.-16.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 27.9 38.9 47.8 80.7 39.2 38.4 35.3 43.2 49.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 22.9 30.3 45.3 86.0 43.3 41.6 23.3 36.8 44.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 30.0 38.9 49.3 83.5 41.3 39.9 35.3 45.2 61.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 45.3 54.8 59.2 88.6 46.3 42.9 45.1 58.4 70.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 38.9 39.9 55.3 84.6 40.9 39.3 37.0 47.8 55.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 49.2 46.9 67.9 96.1 51.3 48.4 37.7 45.9 51.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 20.1 26.5 45.2 86.8 44.2 42.5 20.2 33.0 46.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 78.4 73.2 68.1 96.6 51.5 47.6 59.1 70.9 87.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 30.7 36.7 56.3 84.5 41.4 39.1 33.7 40.0 49.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 43.5 49.3 66.3 91.0 46.5 43.5 40.2 56.4 64.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 33.9 43.4 58.0 89.3 44.2 42.6 35.0 47.7 55.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 52.7 49.7 62.0 96.6 50.9 47.5 39.0 48.9 56.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 42.4 47.6 67.0 94.6 50.9 45.8 41.0 47.5 57.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 44.2 57.6 65.7 86.4 42.0 40.6 48.1 60.5 69.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 48.5 45.2 56.5 94.0 53.3 48.2 35.5 44.7 47.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 47.4 41.3 61.7 92.4 48.9 44.6 36.0 41.3 54.9 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 22.9 31.3 43.8 86.5 44.6 42.1 23.3 37.6 44.4 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 33.6 43.3 72.7 94.8 51.4 46.2 32.9 42.1 51.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 29.1 27.5 46.6 85.0 41.8 40.8 22.8 41.9 49.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 49.4 46.3 81.5 99.5 55.1 49.8 39.9 45.7 53.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 26.9 32.0 51.8 82.1 40.1 38.0 30.5 35.3 57.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 29.0 34.7 46.4 85.7 40.3 41.2 32.1 40.3 44.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 31.3 43.3 49.8 84.5 41.5 40.5 38.5 47.4 52.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 36.7 49.6 62.8 88.2 45.6 41.7 36.8 52.0 59.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 33.3 36.4 53.9 79.9 35.7 36.6 35.7 46.1 51.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 31.5 49.0 67.0 99.5 53.6 49.7 36.9 45.8 52.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 29.8 36.4 50.6 80.9 38.2 38.2 32.8 40.5 48.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 35.4 44.0 60.0 93.9 51.8 47.0 36.7 43.9 49.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 72.9 73.3 76.2 97.1 53.7 48.1 50.9 66.2 82.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 20.3 23.1 46.0 85.0 42.5 41.2 21.8 31.2 51.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------