***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.04.2017.-16.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 6.3 13.0 13.1 85.3 50.0 45.2 5.6 13.0 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 4.5 10.6 12.7 91.8 56.6 47.4 4.7 9.2 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 6.5 14.4 14.3 93.5 54.5 46.6 6.1 12.2 19.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 12.9 21.4 14.8 93.1 57.4 46.6 14.8 20.1 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 10.0 16.0 15.0 94.7 56.0 47.1 10.4 15.1 18.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 8.6 22.8 18.5 107.4 61.7 51.5 8.8 15.6 23.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 5.8 13.1 12.6 92.8 57.5 48.2 3.8 10.3 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 28.0 29.4 18.0 105.5 61.6 50.4 17.9 25.6 30.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 7.4 13.8 15.2 89.8 54.9 45.4 6.9 13.1 18.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 10.2 18.7 18.0 98.6 58.4 48.2 12.0 15.3 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 8.3 16.7 15.2 99.5 59.4 48.3 11.0 14.6 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 8.7 18.3 16.3 107.4 63.4 50.8 10.2 13.9 19.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 8.9 23.5 18.5 110.5 63.6 51.3 12.1 16.4 24.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 11.8 22.0 18.7 95.9 57.5 48.7 14.3 20.3 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 7.7 19.9 13.2 93.0 59.6 47.0 7.6 14.1 20.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 7.4 17.7 16.7 106.1 63.1 49.9 9.5 14.7 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.3 9.5 12.3 92.6 57.5 48.1 4.3 7.1 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 10.2 15.2 19.9 102.5 58.5 49.2 11.1 14.4 15.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 5.2 13.8 13.7 94.2 58.0 47.6 7.2 12.3 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 16.7 18.2 21.2 107.3 61.8 51.0 9.3 15.6 19.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 7.4 12.3 14.1 88.8 53.3 44.9 7.5 12.0 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 4.7 12.3 14.1 97.8 57.9 49.3 5.2 11.1 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 7.1 17.9 15.0 97.0 58.0 48.4 8.5 15.0 19.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 7.1 20.0 18.1 100.3 58.7 48.3 9.2 13.6 21.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 6.6 15.2 14.6 86.9 52.7 44.9 7.5 13.9 21.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 9.7 18.3 17.8 111.4 64.4 52.1 10.4 14.1 18.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 7.2 15.5 13.5 84.2 50.1 45.2 7.5 15.4 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 7.4 21.0 15.0 98.7 61.1 48.7 7.4 14.4 21.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 16.1 24.5 20.0 104.0 60.4 49.7 14.3 23.0 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 4.8 12.0 13.0 91.2 55.3 47.2 5.2 10.9 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------