***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.04.2017.-09.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 1.5 3.0 11.9 79.5 48.0 43.6 1.6 3.1 9.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.6 5.7 11.3 84.0 51.4 45.4 2.1 4.7 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.0 5.3 11.5 78.2 46.9 42.6 2.5 5.9 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.9 9.6 13.0 79.2 49.9 43.8 4.3 9.6 17.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.7 4.9 12.5 77.0 48.6 43.6 2.5 5.7 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.9 5.6 16.1 91.1 56.0 46.5 2.2 4.8 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.0 3.9 10.6 78.7 49.5 43.9 0.7 4.0 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.3 15.6 16.1 94.0 55.5 49.4 6.2 15.1 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.1 6.5 13.4 78.2 49.4 44.2 4.1 6.8 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.7 8.3 15.8 86.6 51.5 46.3 3.9 8.0 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.8 7.4 12.6 81.8 50.9 44.7 2.0 7.2 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.1 9.7 14.2 92.1 55.8 48.5 1.1 9.1 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.0 6.6 15.7 88.8 52.7 46.6 2.6 6.1 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.0 9.2 15.8 81.6 47.7 41.6 5.7 9.6 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.2 5.1 12.5 84.6 53.2 45.3 0.5 4.8 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 2.9 6.1 13.6 82.8 50.4 44.4 2.5 6.1 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.2 4.0 10.2 78.6 50.6 44.3 2.1 4.0 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 3.7 7.4 18.1 93.2 53.9 47.7 2.9 6.3 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 2.9 4.5 11.5 83.7 49.7 44.6 3.6 4.6 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 9.8 9.9 21.7 106.8 59.9 53.9 3.5 8.4 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.1 5.4 12.0 75.6 48.4 43.0 1.8 5.6 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.6 4.2 10.8 79.2 49.4 43.7 2.5 4.4 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.1 4.5 12.0 81.5 47.7 42.7 2.4 5.1 8.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.8 6.3 14.9 82.8 49.7 43.0 3.2 6.4 10.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 8.3 6.1 13.4 79.3 49.5 44.5 3.4 6.1 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 9.0 10.9 16.2 98.2 60.3 50.1 1.5 7.3 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 1.8 3.9 12.9 81.0 49.5 44.2 1.9 4.0 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.5 5.8 12.9 81.5 51.1 44.1 2.8 5.4 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 14.9 13.5 19.7 99.5 56.1 50.2 7.0 11.8 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.2 4.4 11.3 82.3 50.1 44.4 2.6 4.3 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------