***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.03.2017.-02.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 7.4 5.5 13.1 95.2 57.8 47.0 2.6 4.1 6.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 1.5 4.6 11.0 86.7 53.4 45.6 1.2 3.5 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.4 6.7 13.5 97.4 57.2 47.9 2.4 5.8 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.9 13.6 16.2 98.9 58.9 48.9 5.8 9.3 16.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 9.4 8.9 15.8 100.7 58.1 48.8 3.4 6.9 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.1 8.5 17.9 99.3 56.9 48.7 4.3 7.3 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 1.6 4.5 10.8 85.8 54.7 45.6 1.6 2.9 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 16.7 17.1 18.3 108.8 60.5 51.0 5.4 13.0 20.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.3 6.3 15.6 100.7 57.7 48.1 1.8 5.1 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.2 11.8 17.9 109.2 60.1 51.3 2.1 6.8 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 7.5 8.0 17.3 104.7 59.0 49.9 2.8 4.8 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.3 8.4 17.2 105.0 58.1 49.0 4.3 6.3 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.6 14.4 18.5 102.1 57.3 47.6 4.2 8.2 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 3.2 6.4 16.8 94.3 54.5 46.2 3.7 5.8 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.6 11.5 14.5 94.3 57.8 45.6 3.2 5.4 18.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 9.8 10.9 17.4 102.4 57.0 48.4 2.7 6.6 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.0 5.0 10.6 86.9 54.6 46.9 1.6 4.1 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.5 9.2 19.2 111.3 59.7 51.7 1.1 6.4 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 1.9 4.9 11.4 86.4 51.7 45.0 1.3 4.3 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.5 10.0 21.9 114.1 60.6 52.8 3.9 6.1 10.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.8 9.4 14.3 96.2 57.8 46.7 1.8 5.9 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 2.3 5.4 11.0 85.1 51.4 45.6 2.8 4.8 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.1 7.4 12.5 88.4 52.0 44.8 2.7 6.4 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 2.0 6.4 16.7 101.0 56.5 48.2 2.7 4.2 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 12.4 10.1 14.5 90.5 54.7 45.1 4.7 8.9 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.4 8.1 18.0 100.8 57.4 48.7 2.8 5.6 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.1 6.7 13.7 92.6 55.8 46.4 2.1 5.4 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.3 10.8 16.1 102.0 60.4 49.1 3.0 5.9 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.1 11.9 20.7 112.4 61.2 52.4 4.2 8.6 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 1.9 4.2 11.5 89.2 53.6 45.8 1.8 3.7 9.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------