***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.03.2017.-26.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 6.2 2.3 9.7 64.2 45.8 40.2 1.0 2.8 12.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 5.7 3.7 10.3 81.2 50.5 47.5 1.8 3.7 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 7.2 3.4 10.0 65.9 46.0 41.7 2.0 4.1 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 6.9 5.8 15.3 83.7 55.2 48.3 3.4 5.0 9.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 7.1 4.2 12.1 68.3 46.2 41.7 2.6 5.1 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 5.4 4.2 15.5 86.9 53.5 49.0 1.6 3.5 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 6.3 5.0 11.2 90.2 57.4 50.3 1.7 4.3 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 13.6 12.2 15.7 80.9 51.8 47.6 7.3 11.6 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 5.2 2.5 12.1 70.9 46.2 43.4 1.5 3.3 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 8.6 4.8 14.5 73.2 48.7 44.5 1.9 5.8 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 7.1 2.6 12.9 72.3 49.3 44.6 1.4 2.7 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.3 5.9 14.3 83.2 53.7 48.4 1.7 5.8 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 8.8 6.0 14.2 78.1 48.4 45.2 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.1 10.2 14.4 74.3 46.7 44.9 4.7 12.1 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 5.8 11.5 16.2 103.9 63.3 54.0 1.0 3.3 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.9 5.2 14.0 79.2 50.2 46.6 1.7 5.2 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 8.3 8.7 10.8 87.9 55.1 49.4 2.9 7.1 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 7.0 4.9 15.5 75.5 47.2 44.9 3.7 5.6 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 8.1 4.5 10.0 75.1 47.7 45.4 1.6 5.3 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 11.3 6.2 16.6 74.2 47.0 44.3 4.0 8.9 15.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 6.9 4.6 11.4 69.3 45.1 42.2 2.8 4.9 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 7.6 5.0 10.5 79.7 50.2 47.0 2.7 5.0 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 7.5 3.3 10.3 70.3 46.4 44.0 2.0 4.4 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 11.9 7.6 13.0 70.2 44.4 43.2 4.0 9.5 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.0 2.4 11.3 64.2 44.6 38.9 1.3 3.8 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 5.0 4.0 14.9 88.1 57.3 51.6 1.6 3.7 7.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.6 2.7 10.4 66.5 45.8 40.2 2.1 2.8 4.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 4.7 4.5 16.0 93.8 58.6 51.5 0.7 2.4 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 12.8 7.6 15.8 75.4 46.1 44.1 4.7 9.8 15.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 5.0 3.3 10.2 76.8 48.9 45.6 2.5 3.5 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------