***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.03.2017.-16.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 16.8 17.1 15.5 1.5 77.4 71.7 15.2 15.9 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 16.8 17.2 15.5 1.6 82.1 74.1 15.0 16.1 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 17.1 17.4 15.8 1.6 77.4 72.1 15.5 16.4 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 9.5 9.7 12.7 1.1 70.0 65.0 7.3 9.0 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 17.7 18.0 14.0 1.4 74.4 68.9 15.7 16.9 17.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 16.4 16.5 12.0 1.4 72.3 67.6 14.8 15.3 16.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 16.5 17.0 15.5 1.7 82.1 75.0 14.7 15.9 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 5.0 5.3 12.4 1.6 73.6 69.3 3.1 4.3 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 17.3 17.6 14.7 1.5 75.5 69.7 15.2 16.5 17.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 17.2 17.4 13.4 1.6 74.6 69.8 15.5 16.4 17.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 17.4 17.8 14.1 1.5 74.1 68.6 15.5 16.6 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 16.3 16.8 13.3 1.5 73.7 68.8 14.8 15.5 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 17.5 18.1 13.3 1.6 76.8 69.7 15.7 16.6 17.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 17.2 17.5 14.8 1.8 78.4 73.0 15.8 16.3 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 16.9 17.0 14.0 1.0 70.1 64.9 15.0 16.3 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 17.7 18.2 13.5 1.5 74.6 68.5 15.9 16.9 18.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 15.9 16.4 15.3 1.7 83.3 75.8 14.2 15.0 15.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 16.7 16.9 13.0 1.8 75.5 71.3 14.9 16.1 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 16.8 17.1 15.6 1.7 81.7 73.9 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 11.8 12.1 10.6 1.9 76.7 72.2 9.6 11.0 11.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 17.3 17.8 15.4 1.5 76.2 70.3 15.3 16.5 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 16.6 16.9 15.4 1.7 83.1 75.3 14.9 16.0 16.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 17.0 17.4 15.8 1.7 81.4 74.2 15.5 16.3 17.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 17.1 17.5 14.7 1.7 76.9 71.8 15.4 16.3 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 17.0 17.3 14.1 1.5 75.7 70.3 15.3 16.3 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 16.6 17.0 12.5 1.6 77.5 71.1 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 17.0 17.3 14.9 1.6 78.3 72.5 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 17.1 17.1 13.2 1.1 69.4 64.3 15.6 16.6 17.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 11.7 12.1 12.3 1.9 76.9 72.5 9.5 10.8 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 16.7 17.1 15.5 1.6 80.8 73.5 14.9 16.0 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------