***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.04.2017.-16.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 16.7 16.7 16.8 0.8 57.8 57.5 14.3 16.2 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.9 16.6 0.8 58.7 58.3 14.7 16.6 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.2 17.0 17.0 0.7 55.9 56.7 15.2 16.8 17.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 9.5 10.0 14.6 0.6 56.5 54.8 7.5 8.9 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 17.7 17.7 15.3 0.6 54.5 54.8 15.5 17.3 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 16.9 16.2 13.3 0.4 50.4 52.0 14.6 16.2 17.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 17.0 17.0 16.6 0.8 58.9 58.6 14.5 16.6 17.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.4 13.6 0.5 52.9 53.3 3.2 5.3 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.9 15.7 0.7 53.9 55.4 15.2 16.4 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 16.9 17.1 14.5 0.6 54.3 54.3 14.9 16.3 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 17.4 17.4 15.1 0.6 53.5 54.3 15.3 17.0 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 17.3 17.0 14.6 0.5 52.9 53.8 13.9 16.8 17.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 17.8 17.8 13.9 0.5 52.5 53.9 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.7 16.7 15.6 0.7 56.9 55.4 14.1 16.2 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 16.9 17.0 15.3 0.6 57.4 55.2 15.1 16.4 18.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 17.9 17.7 14.6 0.6 52.7 54.2 16.0 17.4 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.4 16.3 16.5 0.8 60.1 58.9 13.7 16.0 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 16.7 16.7 14.2 0.6 53.5 54.5 14.2 16.3 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.8 16.8 0.8 58.3 57.8 14.5 16.6 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.2 11.8 11.3 0.4 50.5 53.3 9.8 11.7 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 17.3 16.9 16.4 0.7 55.3 55.7 15.0 16.8 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 16.9 16.9 16.4 0.8 58.4 57.8 14.3 16.5 17.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 17.0 16.9 16.9 0.8 57.9 57.3 15.0 16.6 17.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 16.8 16.8 15.6 0.7 55.2 55.5 14.5 16.3 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 16.8 16.7 15.3 0.7 57.6 56.8 14.9 16.4 17.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 14.9 17.7 13.9 0.7 55.9 55.7 15.0 17.1 18.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 16.9 16.8 16.2 0.8 58.1 58.0 15.1 16.4 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 17.3 17.3 14.8 0.6 55.1 54.1 15.2 16.9 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.3 13.2 0.5 51.9 54.1 8.6 11.2 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 17.0 16.9 16.7 0.8 57.3 57.9 14.4 16.7 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------