***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.04.2017.-09.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 15.2 17.6 14.7 -0.1 47.4 49.1 16.3 17.7 18.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 18.2 17.6 14.5 -0.1 47.1 49.3 16.9 17.7 18.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.5 17.9 14.9 -0.1 46.6 48.5 16.7 18.1 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 8.3 10.6 12.3 -0.3 44.0 46.5 9.2 11.4 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 16.9 18.2 13.0 -0.3 44.0 46.7 17.0 18.8 19.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 15.7 16.6 10.9 -0.4 43.7 45.3 15.3 17.3 18.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 17.9 17.5 14.5 0.0 48.0 49.6 16.6 17.6 18.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 6.3 5.4 11.3 -0.4 43.1 46.0 4.2 6.1 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 18.5 18.0 13.4 -0.3 44.7 47.1 16.3 18.1 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 18.8 18.2 12.2 -0.3 43.9 46.5 16.7 18.4 18.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 16.5 17.7 12.7 -0.4 43.1 46.0 16.6 18.3 19.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 15.5 16.8 12.2 -0.4 43.6 45.8 15.6 17.5 18.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 18.6 17.7 11.6 -0.4 45.1 46.0 16.6 18.2 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 18.4 17.9 13.4 -0.1 46.4 48.5 16.7 18.0 19.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 15.9 17.3 13.1 -0.2 46.2 47.1 16.7 17.5 19.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 16.8 18.2 12.2 -0.4 43.9 45.8 17.1 18.6 19.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 17.2 16.7 14.4 0.0 47.4 49.5 16.0 16.8 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 18.2 17.8 11.9 -0.3 45.6 47.3 16.2 17.8 18.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 18.1 17.5 14.7 -0.1 47.1 49.2 16.4 17.7 18.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.0 9.2 -0.2 47.4 48.1 11.0 12.2 13.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 18.6 17.9 14.2 -0.2 45.4 47.7 16.8 18.3 18.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 17.8 17.1 14.4 0.0 47.0 49.5 16.2 17.3 18.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 18.2 17.7 14.8 -0.1 47.9 49.1 16.6 17.8 18.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 18.3 17.7 13.3 -0.2 45.6 47.7 16.6 18.0 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 16.5 17.8 13.1 -0.1 46.5 48.4 16.6 18.2 18.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 15.7 17.3 11.6 0.0 50.1 49.2 15.6 17.3 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 18.3 17.9 14.0 -0.1 48.1 49.2 17.1 18.1 18.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 15.8 17.5 12.5 -0.3 44.1 46.1 16.9 18.2 19.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.8 12.3 11.0 -0.2 47.1 47.9 11.2 12.4 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 18.0 17.3 14.6 0.0 47.2 49.4 16.8 17.5 18.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------