***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.03.2017.-02.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 17.5 16.6 14.5 1.1 60.4 60.6 13.7 15.4 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 16.3 17.1 14.5 1.2 60.3 61.2 15.3 15.9 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 16.9 16.7 14.7 1.1 56.8 59.7 15.0 16.4 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 9.0 8.7 11.5 0.9 59.4 57.6 6.0 8.4 8.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 16.7 16.5 12.9 1.0 57.4 58.6 14.7 16.2 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.3 10.9 1.1 59.6 58.9 12.6 14.3 16.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 16.9 16.5 14.5 1.2 62.1 62.0 14.9 15.8 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 4.0 4.5 11.3 1.3 60.9 60.1 2.2 3.3 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 16.4 16.5 13.6 1.0 56.8 58.2 14.5 15.9 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 16.5 16.5 12.2 1.2 58.7 59.0 14.3 16.0 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 16.6 16.5 13.1 1.1 58.2 58.5 14.3 16.0 17.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.7 12.2 1.2 60.2 59.8 13.3 15.1 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.6 12.5 1.2 60.4 60.3 14.3 15.7 17.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 16.4 16.7 13.7 1.2 56.9 59.4 15.0 15.9 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.3 13.2 0.8 60.6 57.9 13.8 15.8 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 17.3 16.8 12.6 1.1 59.0 59.3 15.0 16.7 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.9 14.2 1.2 62.4 61.9 14.0 15.4 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.3 11.8 1.3 58.8 60.3 14.2 15.7 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 16.1 16.2 14.6 1.1 58.8 60.7 15.2 15.8 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 12.0 11.5 9.7 1.7 65.2 64.8 9.2 10.0 11.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 16.6 16.6 14.4 1.0 56.9 58.4 14.9 16.1 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 16.2 16.9 14.3 1.2 60.6 60.9 15.1 16.0 17.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 16.7 16.8 14.7 1.2 58.3 60.5 15.4 16.4 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 16.6 16.6 13.6 1.1 56.1 58.7 14.8 16.1 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 16.3 16.2 13.2 1.0 60.0 60.1 14.8 15.7 16.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 17.1 16.8 11.5 1.4 66.6 63.2 13.8 15.1 16.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 17.6 16.8 14.0 1.1 61.8 61.3 14.6 16.2 17.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 16.1 16.2 12.2 0.8 59.0 57.3 13.5 15.5 16.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 10.7 11.5 11.2 1.5 61.4 62.4 9.1 10.0 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 16.9 16.5 14.5 1.1 60.0 61.1 15.3 15.9 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------