***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.03.2017.-26.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 5 95 100 15.8 18.7 16.0 4.3 87.4 86.5 11.8 13.8 15.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 16.1 19.1 16.3 4.7 91.7 90.2 11.6 13.4 15.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 17.6 19.5 16.7 4.7 89.5 88.1 12.2 13.8 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 10.3 11.8 12.3 3.3 78.3 77.4 3.8 5.7 7.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 4 96 100 18.8 19.9 14.8 4.4 85.7 84.3 12.0 14.4 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 4 96 100 17.6 18.8 12.9 4.5 85.0 83.6 10.4 12.9 15.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 16.0 18.9 16.2 4.7 92.7 90.9 11.4 12.6 15.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 5.9 8.0 13.5 5.0 85.9 85.3 0.3 1.8 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 18.8 19.7 16.0 4.6 87.4 86.0 11.9 14.1 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 18.8 19.9 14.6 5.1 87.7 86.0 11.7 13.8 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 19.0 19.8 15.4 4.6 85.7 84.3 12.0 13.8 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 17.7 18.7 14.2 4.7 84.8 84.7 10.6 12.8 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 19.0 20.1 15.1 4.8 85.7 85.6 11.7 13.8 16.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 18.6 20.1 16.6 5.4 91.3 90.2 12.2 14.5 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 16.9 17.6 14.4 2.9 78.6 77.6 13.2 14.0 15.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 19.1 20.3 14.7 4.5 84.8 84.0 11.6 14.8 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 14.9 18.3 16.0 4.8 93.1 91.7 10.9 12.3 14.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 18.3 19.5 14.2 5.5 89.8 88.5 11.5 13.3 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 1 99 100 16.6 19.0 16.5 4.7 91.5 90.1 11.4 13.7 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 12.4 15.8 12.1 5.6 90.7 90.0 6.3 7.8 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 5 95 100 18.0 19.3 16.6 4.6 87.6 86.3 12.0 14.4 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 16.4 18.9 16.4 4.9 92.9 91.9 11.5 14.0 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 17.3 19.7 16.8 5.0 91.9 90.3 12.1 14.0 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 1 99 100 18.7 20.0 16.3 5.3 90.1 88.8 11.9 14.2 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 17.1 18.5 14.9 4.2 85.7 84.9 12.3 13.4 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 3 97 100 17.9 19.0 13.0 4.4 84.1 84.3 11.4 13.0 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 2 98 100 17.0 18.4 15.6 4.4 88.2 87.3 11.8 13.5 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 18.0 19.0 13.3 3.2 77.7 77.1 12.7 14.2 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 12.5 16.0 13.8 5.7 90.9 90.0 6.2 8.5 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 16.7 18.4 16.3 4.6 91.2 89.3 11.3 13.1 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------