***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.03.2017.-16.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 5.7 6.4 6.2 1.8 88.6 80.3 4.4 4.9 5.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 5.2 5.7 6.0 1.9 91.1 82.3 4.3 4.7 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 7.6 8.0 6.2 1.8 88.9 81.1 6.5 6.9 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 1.7 2.0 3.4 1.5 81.3 75.6 0.3 1.3 1.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 4.4 4.8 3.9 1.7 83.8 77.9 2.9 3.9 4.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 3.3 3.6 1.5 1.6 80.3 75.3 2.4 2.8 3.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 5.4 5.8 5.9 1.8 90.5 81.7 4.4 4.9 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 -1.8 -1.2 1.6 1.9 84.0 79.1 -3.1 -2.2 -2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 5.2 5.6 4.1 1.7 84.7 79.3 4.2 4.5 5.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 5.1 5.4 2.5 1.8 83.8 79.1 4.2 4.6 4.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 4.9 5.4 3.2 1.7 84.2 77.9 3.9 4.6 4.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 3.7 3.9 2.4 1.7 82.6 77.5 2.6 3.3 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 4.4 4.7 2.1 1.6 77.8 74.7 3.5 3.9 4.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 5.5 5.8 4.1 1.8 86.7 80.0 4.7 5.1 5.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 5.4 5.9 4.5 1.4 83.2 76.6 4.2 4.7 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 5.4 5.6 2.7 1.6 81.0 75.7 4.5 5.0 5.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 5.4 5.9 5.8 1.8 91.1 82.3 4.4 4.9 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 3.0 3.3 2.0 2.0 84.5 79.6 2.0 2.5 2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 5.3 5.7 5.9 1.8 90.3 82.4 4.2 4.7 5.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 0.4 0.7 0.2 2.2 85.2 80.1 -0.6 -0.1 0.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 5.2 5.7 5.4 1.7 84.8 78.8 4.0 4.7 5.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 4.6 5.2 5.7 1.8 91.3 82.7 3.7 4.3 4.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 4.8 5.3 5.7 1.8 88.9 82.2 3.9 4.3 4.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 4.9 5.1 3.9 1.8 86.5 80.3 4.1 4.5 4.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 5.5 5.8 5.1 1.8 85.5 78.6 4.1 4.8 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 4.3 4.6 1.9 1.7 81.7 77.6 3.5 3.7 4.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 6.1 6.7 5.7 1.8 87.3 79.7 4.6 5.5 5.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 3.7 4.1 3.6 1.4 80.2 74.9 2.6 3.1 3.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 2.5 2.9 1.3 2.2 85.7 81.0 1.0 1.9 2.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 5.8 6.3 6.1 1.9 90.8 82.1 4.8 5.2 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------