***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.04.2017.-16.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 7.8 7.0 7.1 0.9 64.7 61.0 4.8 6.3 7.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 6.6 6.5 6.9 0.9 63.5 62.0 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 8.8 8.8 7.1 0.8 63.3 62.3 7.1 7.9 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 3.4 2.8 4.4 0.7 61.3 59.8 0.7 2.0 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 6.1 6.3 4.6 0.8 63.5 60.3 3.1 5.9 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.8 2.3 0.5 55.8 55.7 3.4 4.5 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.7 7.0 0.9 62.4 61.5 4.9 6.3 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -0.8 -0.5 2.4 0.8 61.2 59.5 -2.5 -1.1 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.3 6.7 4.9 0.8 62.4 61.1 4.4 6.0 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 6.6 7.0 3.3 0.8 61.6 60.5 4.5 6.4 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.3 6.3 3.8 0.7 61.9 59.3 4.3 6.1 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.1 5.1 3.0 0.7 60.0 58.7 3.3 4.8 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 6.0 6.0 2.6 0.6 54.9 56.1 4.2 5.6 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 7.0 6.7 4.9 0.9 61.3 61.9 5.0 6.4 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.7 5.4 0.7 61.8 59.5 5.8 6.3 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 7.0 7.3 3.3 0.6 59.8 57.9 5.0 6.8 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 6.6 6.8 6.8 0.9 61.2 61.0 5.5 6.3 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 4.7 4.6 2.7 0.9 62.4 61.5 2.7 3.6 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 6.7 6.7 6.9 0.9 63.4 62.5 4.7 6.1 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 1.9 2.5 0.6 0.9 60.5 60.7 0.3 1.6 2.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 7.2 7.1 6.3 0.8 62.6 61.5 4.0 6.5 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 6.0 6.2 6.6 0.9 61.3 61.6 4.4 5.8 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 6.7 6.5 6.6 0.9 63.6 62.4 4.3 5.7 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 6.3 6.3 4.6 0.9 61.6 61.8 4.7 5.4 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.7 7.0 5.7 0.8 62.3 59.9 4.2 6.3 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.8 2.4 0.7 59.5 57.6 4.4 5.4 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 7.9 8.0 6.6 0.9 64.0 60.2 4.0 6.3 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 5.3 5.4 4.6 0.7 61.5 59.4 4.1 4.9 5.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 3.6 3.3 2.1 1.0 61.2 61.6 1.9 2.7 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.7 7.0 7.0 0.9 63.3 62.0 4.8 6.4 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------