***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.04.2017.-09.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 6.5 6.1 5.0 -0.1 47.4 49.3 4.6 6.1 6.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.0 5.7 4.9 0.0 50.4 50.5 4.9 5.7 6.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.4 8.0 5.1 0.1 51.2 51.5 7.1 7.9 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 1.0 2.1 2.4 0.0 48.0 49.9 1.2 2.2 2.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 2.7 4.1 2.5 -0.1 47.4 49.6 3.3 4.2 5.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 3.7 3.0 0.5 0.1 46.3 50.4 2.4 3.3 4.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.1 5.7 4.9 0.0 50.1 50.2 5.3 5.7 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -1.3 -1.9 0.5 0.2 48.7 52.5 -2.3 -1.8 -1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.9 5.0 2.8 0.0 47.1 50.1 4.6 5.2 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.3 5.7 1.4 0.1 48.4 51.8 4.4 5.8 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.5 5.2 1.9 0.1 48.0 50.7 4.3 5.4 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 4.1 3.8 1.2 0.2 47.7 51.3 2.8 3.8 4.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 5.0 4.7 0.8 0.0 48.5 50.0 3.9 4.8 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.9 2.9 0.2 50.0 53.5 5.0 5.9 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 4.8 5.9 3.5 0.0 47.0 50.2 4.9 6.3 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 4.7 5.7 1.4 0.0 48.2 50.0 4.8 5.7 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.1 5.9 4.9 0.1 50.4 50.7 5.1 5.8 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 1.9 3.1 0.7 0.3 50.0 53.8 2.4 3.1 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 6.0 5.9 4.9 0.1 51.7 51.6 4.7 5.7 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 0.7 0.5 -1.3 0.4 50.7 54.8 -0.3 0.4 1.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.2 4.2 0.0 48.4 50.1 4.2 5.4 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.2 4.6 0.1 51.4 51.7 4.4 5.1 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.7 4.7 0.1 54.3 53.0 4.2 5.2 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 5.9 5.3 2.7 0.2 49.0 53.2 4.0 5.5 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.4 3.6 -0.1 46.2 48.9 4.5 5.6 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.2 4.7 0.7 0.3 51.5 52.5 3.6 4.5 5.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 6.8 6.0 4.4 -0.1 47.5 49.3 5.2 6.4 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.2 3.6 2.6 0.0 46.4 49.9 2.8 3.8 4.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 1.5 2.5 0.2 0.4 50.2 54.8 2.2 2.5 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.1 5.0 0.0 50.2 50.6 5.5 6.1 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------