***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.03.2017.-02.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 6.0 5.5 5.4 1.5 70.7 67.9 3.1 4.3 5.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 5.3 5.2 5.1 1.5 71.6 68.5 3.7 4.1 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 7.9 8.3 5.4 1.5 71.2 68.3 5.4 6.8 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 0.6 1.5 2.5 1.3 69.4 65.6 -0.8 0.1 1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 4.4 4.8 3.3 1.4 68.9 66.7 2.0 3.3 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 3.6 4.1 0.8 1.6 72.8 68.3 1.4 2.5 4.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 5.3 5.5 5.0 1.5 71.6 67.9 3.5 4.3 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 -1.1 -1.0 0.9 1.9 71.5 70.2 -3.9 -2.9 -1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 5.9 6.3 3.5 1.6 72.9 69.6 2.7 4.4 5.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 6.0 6.1 1.8 1.8 72.7 70.4 2.8 4.7 5.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 5.2 5.6 2.6 1.6 70.5 68.2 2.5 4.2 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 4.0 3.9 1.7 1.6 70.0 67.6 1.0 3.1 3.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 4.9 5.2 1.7 1.6 73.8 68.6 2.1 3.8 4.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 6.1 6.4 3.4 1.8 74.3 71.6 3.3 4.8 5.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 5.5 5.6 3.8 1.3 70.9 66.9 3.2 4.4 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 6.1 6.4 2.1 1.5 71.9 67.2 3.4 5.1 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 5.5 5.5 4.9 1.5 70.0 68.2 4.0 4.5 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 3.3 3.3 1.3 2.0 74.1 71.8 0.6 2.2 2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 5.4 5.1 5.1 1.5 71.8 69.0 3.2 4.2 5.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 1.3 1.3 -0.4 2.2 75.4 73.4 -1.6 -0.1 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 5.6 5.7 4.7 1.4 70.3 67.8 2.9 4.4 5.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 4.8 5.0 4.9 1.5 70.1 69.3 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 4.7 5.1 5.0 1.6 73.4 70.6 3.1 3.8 4.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 5.2 5.7 3.3 1.8 72.8 70.9 2.8 3.7 5.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 5.6 5.5 4.4 1.5 69.2 66.8 3.1 5.0 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 4.8 4.9 1.2 1.6 71.2 68.2 2.3 4.1 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 6.2 6.2 4.9 1.5 70.3 67.1 3.2 5.4 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 3.7 4.0 2.8 1.3 68.9 65.0 1.6 2.9 3.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 2.8 3.2 0.7 2.3 76.8 75.0 -0.2 1.0 2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 5.9 5.9 5.3 1.5 72.4 68.8 3.5 5.2 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------