***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.03.2017.-26.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 5.5 8.1 7.2 5.1 96.1 94.7 1.5 3.0 4.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 4.7 7.0 7.0 5.0 95.6 94.7 1.2 2.6 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 7.1 9.9 7.3 4.8 95.1 94.2 3.7 4.6 5.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 2.4 4.0 4.1 4.0 90.1 87.7 -2.6 -1.4 -0.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 4.5 6.5 5.3 4.5 93.1 91.9 0.2 2.5 3.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 3.3 5.6 2.3 4.3 92.7 90.2 -0.3 1.4 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 5.0 7.1 6.9 5.0 95.4 94.1 1.3 3.0 3.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 -0.7 1.9 2.7 4.8 94.9 93.7 -6.4 -4.3 -3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 5.6 8.1 5.3 4.4 95.6 94.1 1.4 3.0 4.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 5.1 7.1 3.6 4.6 93.9 92.7 1.6 2.2 4.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 5.0 6.5 4.6 4.3 94.8 92.6 1.3 2.4 4.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 3.7 5.6 3.7 4.5 93.5 91.9 -0.2 1.6 3.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 4.3 5.7 3.5 4.0 88.5 87.7 1.2 2.6 3.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 5.3 7.3 5.1 4.4 94.1 92.5 2.5 3.3 4.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 3 97 100 5.2 6.7 5.1 3.7 90.2 88.6 1.6 2.5 4.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 5.6 7.3 3.9 4.1 91.1 89.1 1.4 3.0 4.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 5.4 6.9 6.7 5.0 95.0 94.2 1.6 2.5 4.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 2.5 3.6 3.2 4.7 93.2 92.0 0.3 1.1 2.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 5.1 7.0 6.9 4.9 95.9 95.0 1.5 2.6 3.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 0.5 2.9 1.8 5.2 94.5 93.6 -3.1 -1.1 -0.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 4.5 7.4 6.5 4.4 94.5 92.9 1.5 3.1 4.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 4.9 6.2 6.8 4.8 95.5 94.4 1.2 1.8 3.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 4.4 6.9 6.6 4.7 96.9 95.6 1.0 2.5 4.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 4.8 6.1 5.1 4.5 94.3 92.9 1.8 2.2 4.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 4.6 7.6 6.5 5.0 93.7 92.9 1.0 3.3 4.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 4.4 6.0 3.2 4.4 93.1 90.8 0.7 2.4 3.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 4.9 9.0 6.9 5.1 94.7 93.8 1.4 3.2 3.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 3.7 4.8 4.4 3.8 87.4 85.9 -0.4 1.4 3.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 2.7 5.6 2.3 5.0 94.2 93.2 -1.4 -0.3 1.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 5.6 8.2 7.2 5.0 96.1 94.9 1.7 3.2 4.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------