***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2018.-15.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 47.9 46.2 60.8 115.0 64.1 60.4 33.3 42.1 48.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 41.1 45.3 51.5 113.3 63.9 57.6 26.0 36.8 46.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 58.3 56.6 58.5 113.2 63.5 59.5 36.0 43.7 58.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 67.1 67.6 72.5 116.8 65.7 62.4 44.7 58.4 67.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 51.6 56.8 67.9 111.8 63.1 59.5 41.8 48.6 58.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 51.7 50.7 78.0 118.0 68.1 64.4 39.9 45.7 50.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 37.4 43.4 51.9 113.9 63.1 57.8 20.5 33.0 44.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 82.5 87.3 75.0 114.3 66.8 61.8 59.9 78.4 85.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 43.7 46.6 66.6 108.7 62.5 57.5 34.1 40.0 51.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 56.3 60.1 73.9 109.0 62.1 58.1 41.4 53.3 60.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 51.5 54.5 69.2 115.0 67.3 61.8 38.1 47.5 54.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 58.1 55.3 69.1 116.8 68.3 63.0 42.1 49.3 54.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 62.3 58.9 78.0 118.3 68.3 64.3 41.6 49.0 57.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 63.7 60.6 69.5 102.4 56.8 53.6 48.6 60.0 63.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 55.1 55.4 71.4 127.5 71.8 66.9 34.9 44.1 50.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 58.1 55.3 72.5 117.6 67.6 63.6 38.8 40.9 53.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 38.4 43.3 49.9 113.4 62.5 57.5 24.7 34.9 44.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 47.0 47.6 76.1 106.9 61.2 56.7 33.7 43.3 51.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 54.0 48.5 52.2 110.8 62.8 56.9 27.0 41.3 49.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 58.1 56.6 93.2 121.1 73.3 66.2 38.4 43.9 51.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 41.6 46.7 63.5 112.0 64.0 59.6 32.0 36.9 48.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 41.2 41.6 50.8 109.0 60.3 55.5 30.5 38.0 44.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 54.4 51.1 55.0 108.4 61.2 56.8 36.0 46.9 52.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 54.4 55.7 66.9 104.9 59.2 55.1 40.7 50.4 59.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 51.1 52.7 72.5 118.0 65.5 63.1 35.6 45.3 52.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 58.5 56.5 75.2 121.3 71.4 65.9 35.5 47.4 53.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 51.5 46.4 66.5 117.4 65.4 61.8 33.1 39.9 46.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 52.4 50.8 72.0 121.1 68.6 64.5 34.1 42.5 50.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 69.9 76.5 80.8 110.6 65.3 59.4 52.8 63.9 77.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 43.2 46.5 53.3 113.5 63.7 58.1 22.9 37.4 47.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------