***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.04.2018.-15.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 15.2 12.7 13.0 90.1 53.3 47.5 5.8 12.2 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.9 12.2 98.0 59.6 51.6 4.1 9.1 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 6.5 12.1 12.4 89.7 52.5 47.3 7.3 10.9 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 14.7 18.4 13.4 78.8 46.4 44.8 14.7 19.0 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 10.2 12.3 12.5 75.8 44.8 43.4 10.0 14.7 20.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 17.5 15.0 14.6 81.4 50.6 43.7 7.2 14.8 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 10.4 13.0 12.6 99.5 59.1 52.1 4.2 8.9 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 17.1 22.9 13.7 79.2 46.6 43.2 20.2 24.0 30.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 17.6 13.7 12.9 75.5 47.2 43.8 7.9 15.5 17.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 11.9 14.3 14.2 76.9 46.1 43.2 12.8 14.7 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 18.5 15.3 12.1 76.7 46.8 43.4 9.5 16.3 19.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 7.3 11.9 12.1 77.7 46.9 42.8 7.4 13.4 18.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 18.4 14.8 14.0 79.9 49.1 43.2 11.0 15.6 23.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 11.1 19.3 15.2 82.8 49.7 44.5 12.8 19.4 22.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 17.2 15.1 12.6 80.5 53.3 47.0 4.5 14.9 19.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 16.9 13.9 13.0 78.5 48.0 44.0 7.9 14.6 20.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 10.2 13.6 12.9 108.3 63.8 55.2 4.9 7.8 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 9.7 14.9 15.5 80.5 47.8 44.2 11.6 14.9 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 6.2 12.8 12.1 94.9 58.3 50.3 7.7 11.1 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 9.6 14.8 17.2 86.6 50.9 46.1 7.4 14.8 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 15.0 13.4 12.7 82.1 50.6 45.8 8.1 13.0 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.6 14.6 13.0 102.7 64.1 53.2 3.8 10.6 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 6.3 15.9 12.3 91.2 55.5 48.6 9.4 13.3 18.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 7.8 14.9 14.1 82.5 48.5 44.4 11.7 15.0 19.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 9.5 16.5 14.6 86.8 51.4 47.5 10.0 16.1 18.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 8.7 12.8 12.9 79.6 49.4 42.7 10.0 13.1 18.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 17.5 15.1 14.1 90.7 53.1 48.0 8.8 13.8 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 7.3 11.9 12.9 78.1 48.6 45.2 7.0 11.9 21.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 15.0 20.4 15.9 82.6 48.7 44.7 16.7 20.6 30.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 11.7 11.2 12.2 94.8 56.7 50.0 5.8 10.5 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------