***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.04.2018.-08.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 6.9 8.3 14.6 111.7 63.1 57.3 2.1 5.4 9.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 7.8 8.8 12.7 112.5 63.6 55.3 1.9 6.2 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 8.4 9.2 13.8 109.0 63.5 55.7 1.9 7.1 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 10.3 12.0 17.8 121.6 69.9 58.8 5.8 8.4 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.7 14.0 17.5 126.4 70.9 59.3 3.1 6.2 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 6.3 8.1 19.1 116.9 66.3 56.7 2.3 4.9 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 6.0 7.0 12.7 110.2 62.0 54.7 0.9 4.3 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 13.9 16.0 18.8 124.3 69.9 58.2 4.9 12.9 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 7.1 7.7 17.8 123.1 67.6 58.1 3.3 5.0 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 8.0 12.0 19.5 124.4 68.8 58.3 3.1 6.6 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 6.6 9.4 17.4 130.1 73.4 59.8 2.7 5.3 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 6.7 10.8 17.1 124.4 71.1 58.0 1.7 4.2 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 7.1 9.2 19.5 123.6 69.3 58.3 2.5 5.9 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 9.2 12.0 17.4 102.8 61.2 53.3 4.0 7.8 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 4.6 5.6 17.5 125.3 68.9 58.8 1.5 3.9 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.3 9.5 18.5 129.1 73.1 59.5 2.8 5.2 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 5.2 6.0 12.1 105.7 62.8 53.3 1.8 3.9 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 6.5 6.5 20.3 120.8 67.7 57.0 2.5 4.4 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 6.9 7.7 12.7 108.7 62.9 54.5 2.9 5.3 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.0 11.8 22.8 125.4 69.7 58.6 3.3 6.6 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 7.1 9.4 15.9 119.6 67.8 58.4 1.0 4.9 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 6.1 7.8 12.8 104.4 62.5 52.6 2.6 4.5 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.9 7.7 13.1 102.9 63.6 54.1 2.7 6.1 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 6.7 9.2 17.0 109.6 64.3 54.2 2.4 5.3 9.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 8.2 11.8 17.6 118.6 67.2 59.9 3.4 6.6 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.2 7.8 16.8 110.3 62.0 54.9 1.7 4.6 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 7.6 9.5 16.3 115.7 65.0 58.7 1.4 5.9 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.6 8.4 18.2 127.7 71.4 59.0 1.5 3.8 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 10.3 10.9 20.8 120.3 67.2 57.2 6.3 7.9 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 5.5 6.0 13.0 112.0 62.0 55.7 1.9 4.4 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------